University of Tehran Press Journal of Ecohydrology 2423-6098 9 1 2022 03 21 Effects of climate change on floods volume and peak discharge (Case Study: Qaran Talar sub-catchmaent) Effects of climate change on floods volume and peak discharge (Case Study: Qaran Talar sub-catchmaent) 259 272 88261 10.22059/ije.2022.333410.1576 FA Toktam Imani Shahrood University of Technology Mahdi Dalghandi Samad Emamgholizadeh Shahrood University of Technology Zahra Ganji -noroozi Shahrood University of Technology Journal Article 2021 10 23 Changes in runoff properties due to climate change are currently one of the main concerns in long term planning of water resources and float protection. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources. Therefore, in this research impacts of climate change on runoff properties of Qaran Talar sub-catchment were evaluated. For this purpose, 22 AOGCM models and two greenhouse gases emission scenarios (RCp4.5 and RCP8.5) are used for the generation of climate change scenarios. Daily precipitation time series under 3 probability levels (0.50, 0.75, and 0.90) were generated for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099), and afterward design precipitation for 2 to 500-year return periods was determined for baseline and future periods. Results showed that in the future periods, in the cold and warm months of the year, we will expect an increase and decrease in rainfall, respectively. Outputs of WMS model indicated that under climate change conditions, the amount of peak discharge and the volume of floods for design rainfall of different return periods will increase by 35 to 110 percent. It was also found that at the probability level of 0.5, the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in both future periods estimate a 30% increase in peak discharge and flood volume. at the probability level of 0.75 and 0.90 during 2021-2050, both emission scenarios indicated the same results, but the amount of peak discharge increase in the period of 2099-2070 under RCP8.5 is higher compared to RCP4.5. Changes in runoff properties due to climate change are currently one of the main concerns in long term planning of water resources and float protection. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources. Therefore, in this research impacts of climate change on runoff properties of Qaran Talar sub-catchment were evaluated. For this purpose, 22 AOGCM models and two greenhouse gases emission scenarios (RCp4.5 and RCP8.5) are used for the generation of climate change scenarios. Daily precipitation time series under 3 probability levels (0.50, 0.75, and 0.90) were generated for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099), and afterward design precipitation for 2 to 500-year return periods was determined for baseline and future periods. Results showed that in the future periods, in the cold and warm months of the year, we will expect an increase and decrease in rainfall, respectively. Outputs of WMS model indicated that under climate change conditions, the amount of peak discharge and the volume of floods for design rainfall of different return periods will increase by 35 to 110 percent. It was also found that at the probability level of 0.5, the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in both future periods estimate a 30% increase in peak discharge and flood volume. at the probability level of 0.75 and 0.90 during 2021-2050, both emission scenarios indicated the same results, but the amount of peak discharge increase in the period of 2099-2070 under RCP8.5 is higher compared to RCP4.5. https://ije.ut.ac.ir/article_88261_94204e30319378a60763f19d1e70e928.pdf