پیش ‏بینی و تحلیل پهنۀ سیل در شرایط تغییر اقلیم براساس سناریوهای مدل CanESM2

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری- آب، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استاد گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استاد مرکز مدل‏سازی پیشرفته و سیستم‏های اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکدۀ مهندسی و فناوری اطلاعات، دانشگاه فناوری سیدنی، استرالیا، استاد دانشکدۀ مهندسی انرژی و منابع معدنی، دانشگاه سئول، کره

4 استادیار گروه جنگل‏داری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

شمال ایران به دلیل اقلیم مرطوب و مقدار زیاد بارش حداکثر روزانه، یکی از مناطق مستعد وقوع سیل است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف پیش‏بینی پهنۀ سیل در شرایط تغییر اقلیم براساس سناریوهای پنجمین گزارش ارزیابی هیِئت بین‌الدول تغییر اقلیم در حوضۀ تالار (شهر زیراب) انجام شد. به منظور بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم از شش ایستگاه سینوپتیک استفاده شد. از میان مدل‏های گردش عمومی CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5، برای ریزمقیاس‏سازی آماری حداکثر بارش روزانه به ‏کار برده شد. برای شبیه‏سازی هیدرولوژیکی و هیدرولیکی سیلاب در دهه‏های اخیر و آینده از مدل‏های HEC-HMS و HEC-RAS استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد بارش حداکثر روزانه در حوضۀ تالار افزایش یافته، به‏طوری‏ که مقدار افزایش حداکثر بارش روزانه در اقلیم مرطوب (شمال) نسبت به اقلیم خشک (جنوب) بیشتر است. به‏طور کلی، حداکثر و حداقل بارش روزانه به‌ترتیب 8 و 33 میلی‏متر در حوضۀ تالار افزایش می‏یابد. نتایج شبیه‏سازی با توجه به هیدروگراف سیلاب بیانگر آن است که سیل در تمامی دوره‏ها افزایش می‏یابد. سناریوی RCP 4.5 حداقل و حداکثر سیل را به‌ترتیب در دوره‏های 2020-2040 (374 مترمکعب بر ثانیه) و 2020-2100 (1209 مترمکعب بر ثانیه) تولید خواهد کرد. نقشۀ پهنه‏بندی سیلاب نشان داد پهنۀ سیل‏گیر دورۀ پایه در محدودۀ رودخانه است، ولی تغییر اقلیم سبب افزایش پهنۀ سیلاب در این منطقه می‏شود. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد حداقل 18/0 درصد و حداکثر 7/8 درصد از کل شهر زیراب تحت تأثیر سیلاب در شرایط تغییر اقلیم قرار خواهد گرفت.

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دوره 7، شماره 2
تیر 1399
صفحه 551-562
  • تاریخ دریافت: 15 اسفند 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 31 فروردین 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 31 فروردین 1399
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 01 تیر 1399
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 تیر 1399