Dynamic Analysis of Energy Export and Helmand Rights Scenarios in Water Resources Management of Sistan Region

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor Department of Agricultural Economics, Agriculture Institute, Research Institute of zabol, Zabol, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

3 PhD in Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

Abstract

Research Topic: The present study models the dynamics of the water resources management system in the Sistan region, focusing on the water-food-energy nexus.
Objective: a water, food, energy system dynamic model simulation was developed, taking into account the results of Sensitivity analysis, to develop sustainable water resources policy in the form of a water demand, water supply, food resource management, and energy management.
Method: The initial modeling and simulation were conducted using Vensim DSS software. The required data included surface water inflow, water delivered to the domestic and agricultural sectors, the number of agricultural wells, cultivated area and crop yields, production levels of livestock, poultry, and fisheries, as well as energy carriers for the period 2006-2036. After applying each of the water demand and supply management policies and food and energy resource management policies separately to the model, the best scenarios were selected and implemented in combination. The results were then compared with one another.
Results: According to the results of the simulation model, in the scenario of electricity export in exchange for receiving water rights, water security increased by 4,920 million cubic meters, and consequently, energy security also increased by 297,504 kilowatt-hours. Moreover, implementing the scenario of eliminating water-intensive crops such as wheat and barley and replacing them with alternative crops led to an improvement in water security, and energy security increased by 692,399 kilowatt-hours compared to the base year. However, food security declined due to the complete removal of these crops from the region. Under the scenario of enforcing water rights by the neighboring country (Afghanistan), water security increased by 9,840 million cubic meters, which showed a significantly higher growth compared to the base scenario. In the scenario of reducing large livestock by 10% and increasing small livestock by 10%, water security showed no increase (remained at zero).
Conclusions: Analysis of the results and data comparison trends revealed that the system dynamics modeling in the Sistan region indicates an unfavorable outlook for water resources and food production over the 30-year period. The simultaneous implementation of policies including energy export, enforcement of water rights, crop pattern reform, and livestock optimization can improve the security of water, food, and energy resources and contribute to achieving regional sustainability. These strategies, within the framework of the water-food-energy nexus approach, play a key role in integrated resource management.

Highlights

Bani Habib, M., & Ghafouri Kharanagh, S. (2019). Evaluation of Traditional Aquifer Governance Features Using the Principles of Groundwater Governance. Iranian Indigenous Knowledge, 6(12), 307–331.

Cabrera, E., Pardo, M. A., Cobacho, R., & Cabrera Jr, E. (2010). Energy audit of water networks. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 136(6), 669-677.

Del Borghi, A., Moreschi, L., & Gallo, M. (2020). Circular economy approach to reduce water–energy–food nexus. Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health, 13, 23-28.

Du, B., Zhen, L., De Groot, R., Long, X., Cao, X., Wu, R., & Wang, C. (2015). Changing food consumption patterns and impact on water resources in the fragile grassland of Northern China. Sustainability, 7(5), 5628-5647.

El-Gafy, I. (2014). System dynamic model for crop production, water footprint, and virtual water nexus. Water resources management, 28, 4467-4490.

Francisco, É. C., de Arruda Ignácio, P. S., Piolli, A. L., & Dal Poz, M. E. S. (2023). Food-energy-water (FEW) nexus: Sustainable food production governance through system dynamics modeling. Journal of Cleaner Production, 386, 135825.

Goharshahi, Gh., Sardarshahraki, A., Shahraki, J. & Aliahmadi, N. (2024). Dynamic analysis of sustainable water resources management based on the interrelationship of water, food and energy resources (Case study: Darmin and Sarbisheh counties in South Khorasan Province). Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 14(3), 154-174. 10.22125/iwe.2023.415390.1747. (In persian)

Karnib, A., & Alameh, A. (2020). Technology-oriented approach to quantitative assessment of water–energy–food nexus. International Journal of Energy and Water Resources, 4, 189-197.

Keyhanpour, M. J., Jahromi, S. H. M., & Ebrahimi, H. (2021). System dynamics model of sustainable water resources management using the Nexus Water-Food-Energy approach. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 12(2), 1267-1281.

Khiareddine, A., Salah, C. B., Rekioua, D., & Mimouni, M. F. (2018). Sizing methodology for hybrid photovoltaic/wind/hydrogen/battery integrated to energy management strategy for pumping system. Energy, 153, 743-762.

Kolahzar Moghaddam, F., & Ketabchi, H. (2019). Feasibility study of using simulation-optimization model to evaluate decisions based on water-food-energy nexus considering environmental damages. Ecohydrology, 7(2), 313-329. (in Persian).

Li, P. C., & Ma, H. W. (2020). Evaluating the environmental impacts of the water-energy-food nexus with a life-cycle approach. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 157, 104789.

Mirzaei, A., Saghafian, B., Mirchi, A., & Madani, K. (2019). The groundwater‒energy‒food nexus in Iran’s agricultural sector: implications for water security. Water, 11(9), 1835.

Pacetti, T., Lombardi, L., & Federici, G. (2015). Water–energy Nexus: a case of biogas production from energy crops evaluated by Water Footprint and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods. Journal of Cleaner Production, 101, 278-291.

Plappally, A. K. (2012). Energy requirements for water production, treatment, end use, reclamation, and disposal. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(7), 4818-4848.

Ravar, Z., Zahraie, B., Sharifinejad, A., Gozini, H., & Jafari, S. (2020). System dynamics modeling for assessment of water–food–energy resources security and nexus in Gavkhuni basin in Iran. Ecological Indicators, 108, 105682.

Safavian, N., Mohammadi, A., Mosleh Shirazi, A. N., & Alimohammadlo, M. (2022). Water resources management in Food-Energy-Water Nexus: The application of system dynamics in Iran's Maharlu Lake Basin. Iranian journal of management sciences, 17(67), 1-26.

Samavatean, N., Rafiee, S., & Mobli, H. (2011). An analysis of energy use and estimation of a mechanization index of garlic production in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Science, 3(2), 198.

Schull, V. Z., Daher, B., Gitau, M. W., Mehan, S., & Flanagan, D. C. (2020). Analyzing FEW nexus modeling tools for water resources decision-making and management applications. Food and Bioproducts Processing, 119, 108-124.

Shahmohammadi, A., Khoshbakht, K., Veisi, H., & Nazari, M. R. (2024). Investigating of Water, Energy, and Food Nexus with the Systems Dynamics Approach; a Case Study of Varamin Plain. Environmental Sciences, 22(1), 1-20.

Simpson, G. B., & Jewitt, G. P. (2019). The development of the water-energy-food nexus as a framework for achieving resource security: a review. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 7, 8.

Sterman, J. (2002). System Dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world.

Sušnik, J., Masia, S., Indriksone, D., Brēmere, I., & Vamvakeridou-Lydroudia, L. (2021). System dynamics modelling to explore the impacts of policies on the water-energy-food-land-climate nexus in Latvia. Science of The Total Environment, 775, 145827.

Wen, C., Dong, W., Zhang, Q., He, N., & Li, T. (2022). A system dynamics model to simulate the water-energy-food nexus of resource-based regions: A case study in Daqing City, China. Science of the Total Environment, 806, 150497.

Yang, H., Reichert, P., Abbaspour, K. C., & Zehnder, A. J. (2003). A water resources threshold and its implications for food security.

Zeng, Y., Liu, D., Guo, S., Xiong, L., Liu, P., Yin, J. & Wu, Z. (2022). A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(15), 3965-3988.

Zhao, J., Liu, W., & Deng, H. (2005). The potential role of virtual water in solving water scarcity and food security problems in China. The International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 12(4), 419-428.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Bani Habib, M., & Ghafouri Kharanagh, S. (2019). Evaluation of Traditional Aquifer Governance Features Using the Principles of Groundwater Governance. Iranian Indigenous Knowledge, 6(12), 307–331.
Cabrera, E., Pardo, M. A., Cobacho, R., & Cabrera Jr, E. (2010). Energy audit of water networks. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 136(6), 669-677.
Del Borghi, A., Moreschi, L., & Gallo, M. (2020). Circular economy approach to reduce water–energy–food nexus. Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health, 13, 23-28.
Du, B., Zhen, L., De Groot, R., Long, X., Cao, X., Wu, R., & Wang, C. (2015). Changing food consumption patterns and impact on water resources in the fragile grassland of Northern China. Sustainability, 7(5), 5628-5647.
El-Gafy, I. (2014). System dynamic model for crop production, water footprint, and virtual water nexus. Water resources management, 28, 4467-4490.
Francisco, É. C., de Arruda Ignácio, P. S., Piolli, A. L., & Dal Poz, M. E. S. (2023). Food-energy-water (FEW) nexus: Sustainable food production governance through system dynamics modeling. Journal of Cleaner Production, 386, 135825.
Goharshahi, Gh., Sardarshahraki, A., Shahraki, J. & Aliahmadi, N. (2024). Dynamic analysis of sustainable water resources management based on the interrelationship of water, food and energy resources (Case study: Darmin and Sarbisheh counties in South Khorasan Province). Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 14(3), 154-174. 10.22125/iwe.2023.415390.1747. (In persian)
Karnib, A., & Alameh, A. (2020). Technology-oriented approach to quantitative assessment of water–energy–food nexus. International Journal of Energy and Water Resources, 4, 189-197.
Keyhanpour, M. J., Jahromi, S. H. M., & Ebrahimi, H. (2021). System dynamics model of sustainable water resources management using the Nexus Water-Food-Energy approach. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 12(2), 1267-1281.
Khiareddine, A., Salah, C. B., Rekioua, D., & Mimouni, M. F. (2018). Sizing methodology for hybrid photovoltaic/wind/hydrogen/battery integrated to energy management strategy for pumping system. Energy, 153, 743-762.
Kolahzar Moghaddam, F., & Ketabchi, H. (2019). Feasibility study of using simulation-optimization model to evaluate decisions based on water-food-energy nexus considering environmental damages. Ecohydrology, 7(2), 313-329. (in Persian).
Li, P. C., & Ma, H. W. (2020). Evaluating the environmental impacts of the water-energy-food nexus with a life-cycle approach. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 157, 104789.
Mirzaei, A., Saghafian, B., Mirchi, A., & Madani, K. (2019). The groundwater‒energy‒food nexus in Iran’s agricultural sector: implications for water security. Water, 11(9), 1835.
Pacetti, T., Lombardi, L., & Federici, G. (2015). Water–energy Nexus: a case of biogas production from energy crops evaluated by Water Footprint and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods. Journal of Cleaner Production, 101, 278-291.
Plappally, A. K. (2012). Energy requirements for water production, treatment, end use, reclamation, and disposal. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(7), 4818-4848.
Ravar, Z., Zahraie, B., Sharifinejad, A., Gozini, H., & Jafari, S. (2020). System dynamics modeling for assessment of water–food–energy resources security and nexus in Gavkhuni basin in Iran. Ecological Indicators, 108, 105682.
Safavian, N., Mohammadi, A., Mosleh Shirazi, A. N., & Alimohammadlo, M. (2022). Water resources management in Food-Energy-Water Nexus: The application of system dynamics in Iran's Maharlu Lake Basin. Iranian journal of management sciences, 17(67), 1-26.
Samavatean, N., Rafiee, S., & Mobli, H. (2011). An analysis of energy use and estimation of a mechanization index of garlic production in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Science, 3(2), 198.
Schull, V. Z., Daher, B., Gitau, M. W., Mehan, S., & Flanagan, D. C. (2020). Analyzing FEW nexus modeling tools for water resources decision-making and management applications. Food and Bioproducts Processing, 119, 108-124.
Shahmohammadi, A., Khoshbakht, K., Veisi, H., & Nazari, M. R. (2024). Investigating of Water, Energy, and Food Nexus with the Systems Dynamics Approach; a Case Study of Varamin Plain. Environmental Sciences, 22(1), 1-20.
Simpson, G. B., & Jewitt, G. P. (2019). The development of the water-energy-food nexus as a framework for achieving resource security: a review. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 7, 8.
Sterman, J. (2002). System Dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world.
Sušnik, J., Masia, S., Indriksone, D., Brēmere, I., & Vamvakeridou-Lydroudia, L. (2021). System dynamics modelling to explore the impacts of policies on the water-energy-food-land-climate nexus in Latvia. Science of The Total Environment, 775, 145827.
Wen, C., Dong, W., Zhang, Q., He, N., & Li, T. (2022). A system dynamics model to simulate the water-energy-food nexus of resource-based regions: A case study in Daqing City, China. Science of the Total Environment, 806, 150497.
Yang, H., Reichert, P., Abbaspour, K. C., & Zehnder, A. J. (2003). A water resources threshold and its implications for food security.
Zeng, Y., Liu, D., Guo, S., Xiong, L., Liu, P., Yin, J. & Wu, Z. (2022). A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(15), 3965-3988.
Zhao, J., Liu, W., & Deng, H. (2005). The potential role of virtual water in solving water scarcity and food security problems in China. The International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 12(4), 419-428.
Journal of Ecohydrology
Volume 12, Issue 2
July 2025
Pages 695-719

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History

  • Receive Date: 09 April 2025
  • Revise Date: 08 May 2025
  • Accept Date: 11 June 2025
  • First Publish Date: 11 June 2025
  • Publish Date: 22 June 2025

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