Investigating spatiotemporal variations of precipitation and temperature over Iran under climate change condition considering AOGCM models and emission scenarios uncertainty

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Soil and Water Department, Agricultural Faculty, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran

Abstract

Climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature world-wide are not yet well understood (especially for precipitation), due to their complexity and regional variability. In this study In order to explicit the impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature in Iran, 15 AOGCM whose greenhouse gases scenarios ran under A2, A1B and B1 were used. Monthly precipitation and temperature data were calculated for 21 synoptic stations for two future periods (2016-2045 and 2070-2099) under all of three scenarios. Result showed that increases in temperature during summer months are higher in comparison with the winter months for both future periods. All three emission scenarios predict same increase in temperature (approximately 1 to 1.5oC) for the first future period while A2 and B1 scenarios predict the highest and lowest increase in temperature over the period of 2070-2099, respectively. It is expected that mean temperature of Iran increases about 3.5oC for the areas close to Caspian Sea and central regions and 4.5oC for other regions under the A2 critical scenario. It is also found that precipitation amounts will be increased in Gilan province and also slightly in Ardabil Province under second future period while the precipitation amounts will be decreased in other regions. Generally, it can be concluded that annual precipitation volume of Iran will be decreased about 1.02 (0.25 percent) and 16.52 billion cubic meter (4.13 percent) for the first and second periods, respectively.
 

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  1.  

    1. IPCC. Technical summary. In: Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific–technical analyses, eds. Watson, RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH, contribution of working group to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge university press, Cambridge. 2001; 1–53.
    2. IPCC. Climate change. The science of climate change. Contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Eds. Houghton JT, Filho LGM, Callander BA, Harris N, Attenberg A, Maskell K. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 2001.
    3. Lobell BD, Sibley A, Ortiz-Monasterio JI. Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nature Climate Change. 2012; 2: 186-189.
    4. FAO. Adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forestry and fisheries: Perspective, framework and priorities. Interdepartmental Working Group on Climate Change. Rome. Available on: http://www.fao.org. 2007;
    5. Ruiz-Ramos M, Minguez MI. Evaluating uncertainty in climate change impacts on crop productivity in the Iberian Peninsula. Climate Research. 2010; 44: 69-82.
    6. IPCC-TGICA. General guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment. eds. Carter, T.R. 2007. Version 2, 71p. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Assessment.
    7. Allan RP, Soden BJ. Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science. 2008; 321: 1481–1483.
    8. Delghandi M, Risk Assessment of climate change impact on potential evapotranspiration (Case study: Shahrood region). Iranian of Irrigation & Water Engineering. 2016; 23: 156-167. [Persian].
    9. Tapiador FJ, Sanchez E, Gaertner MA. Regional changes in precipitation in Europe under an increased greenhouse emissions scenario. Geophysical Research Letters. 2007; 34: L06701.
    10. Parracho AC, Melo-Gonçalves P, Rocha A. Regionalization of precipitation for the Iberian Peninsula and climate change. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. 2015;  94: 146-154
    11. Rodriguez-Puebla C, Encinas, AH, Nieto S, Garmendia J. Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology. 1998; 18: 299-316.
    12. Tramblay Y, Badi W, Driouech F, El Adlouni S, Neppel L, Servat E. Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation in Morocco. Global and Planetary Change. 2012; 82-83: 104–114.
    13. Wu F, Wang , Cai Y, Li Ch, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin. Quaternary International. 2016; 392 (21): 137–146.
    14. Willems P, Vrac M. Statistical precipitation downscaling for small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change. Journal of Hydrology. 2011; 402: 193-205.
    15. Poulter B, Pederson N, Liu H, Zhu Z, D’Arrigo R, peCiais P, et al. Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2013; 178–179: 31–45.
    16. Helfer F, Lemckert C, Zhang H. 2012. Impacts of climate change on temperature and evaporation from a large reservoir in Australia. Journal of Hydrology 2012; 475: 365–378.
    17. Ribalayguaa J,  Rosa Pinob M, Pórtolesa J, Roldán E, Gaitána E, Chinarro D, et al. Climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation in Aragón (Spain). Science of The Total Environment. 2013;  463-464: 1015–1030.
    18. Almazroui M, Saeed F,  Nazrul Islam Md,  Alkhalaf AK. Assessing the robustness and uncertainties of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in AR4 Global Climate Models over the Arabian Peninsula. Atmospheric Research. 2016; 182 (15): 163–175.
    19.  Gulacha MM, Mulungu DMM. Generation of climate change scenarios for precipitation and temperature at local scales using SDSM in Wami-Ruvu River Basin Tanzania. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 2016: In press.
    20.  Carvalho MJ, Gonçalves PM, Teixeira JC,  Rocha A. Regionalization of Europe based on a K-Means Cluster Analysis of the climate change of temperatures and precipitation. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. 2016; 94: 22–28.
    21. Gonçalves PM, Rocha A, Santosb JA. Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. 2016; 94: 114–126.
    22.  Piras M, Mascaro G, Deidda R, Vivon ER. Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin. Science of The Total Environment. 2016; 543: 952–964.
    23. Kouhestani S,  Eslamian SS, Abedi-Koupai J,  Besalatpour AA. Projection of climate change impacts on precipitation using soft-computing techniques: A case study in Zayandeh-rud Basin, Iran. Global and Planetary Change. 2016; 144:158–170.
    24. Hamidianpour M, Baaghideh M, Abbasnia M. Assessment of the Precipitation and Temperature Changes over South East Iran Using Downscaling Of General Circulation Models Outputs.Physical Geography Research Quarterly. 2016; 48 (1): 107-123. [Persian].
    25. Pirmoradian N, Hadinia H, Ashrafzadeh A. Prediction of Minimum and Maximum Temperature, Radiation and Precipitation in Rasht Synoptic Station under Different Climate Change Scenarios. Journal of Geography and Planning. 2016; 55: 29-44. [Persian].
    26. Rezaei M, Nohtani M, Moghaddamnia A, Abkar A, Rezaei M. Long- term Precipitation Prediction Using Statistical Downscaling Model. Water and Soil Science. 2016; 26 , 1(2):115-127. [Persian].
    27. Taei Semiromi S, Moradi HR, Khodagholi M. Simulation and prediction some of climate variable by using multi line SDSM and Global Circulation Models (Case study: Bar Watershed Nayshabour). Journal of Human and Environment. 2014; 12 (28): 1-15. [Persian].
    28. Khazaei MR, Byzedi M. Climate Change Impact on Annual Meteorological and Hydrological Variables of the Sirvan Basin. Iran-Water Resources Research. 2016; 12 (2): 38-48. [Persian].
    29. Salajegheh A, Rafiei Sardooei E, Moghaddamnia A, Malekian A, Araghinejad Sh, Khalighi Sigaroodi Sh,et al. Prediction of Climatic Variables using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Future under Scenario A2. Desert Management. 2016; 7: 12-25. [Persian].
    30. López-Moreno JI, Vicente-Serrano SM, Angulo-Martínez M, Beguerías S, Kenawy A. Trends in daily precipitation on the northeastern Iberian Peninsula, 1955–2006International Journal of Climatology. 2009; 30: 1026–1041.
    31. Ghabaei Sough M, Mosaedi A. Modification of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) based on the best method of evapotranspiration estimation and probability distribution function. Journal of Range and Watershed Management. 2014; 66 (4): 565-582. [Persian].
    32. Wilby RL, Harris I. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research. 2006; 42 (2): W02419.
    33. IPCC- TGCIA. Guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment. eds. Carter TR, Hulme M, Lal M.. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment. 1999; 1: 69 pp.
    34. Lobell DB, Ortiz-Manasterio I. Evaluating strategies for improved water use in spring wheat with CERES. Agricultural Water Management. 2006; 84: 249-258.
Iranian journal of Ecohydrology
Volume 3, Issue 3
September 2017
Pages 321-331

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 27 September 2016
  • Revise Date: 08 December 2016
  • Accept Date: 16 December 2016
  • First Publish Date: 16 December 2016
  • Publish Date: 22 September 2016

Share

How to cite

Statistics