Assessing Future Climate Change Components from North to South West of Iran

Kalanaki, Mahdi; Ramezani Etedali, Hadi; Van Oel, Pieter

doi:10.22059/ije.2022.340627.1621

Assessing Future Climate Change Components from North to South West of Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ 1- Postdoctoral Researcher of Irrigation and Drainage, Joint Cooperation Program, Imam Khomeini International University (IKIU) and Wageningen University and Research (WUR)

² 2- Associate Professor, Water Sciences and Engineering Department, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

³ 3- Associate Professor, Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, The Netherlands

10.22059/ije.2022.340627.1621

Abstract

Climate change is one of the ongoing challenges. This phenomenon will affect all parts of the world, including Iran. Therefore, understanding and projecting climate change can be a way forward for future planning in different areas. To do this, the present study applied six general circulation models (GCM) to assess climate change in some stations in northwest, west and southwest of Iran under three different scenarios: RCP2.6 (optimistic), RCP4.5 (middle) and RCP8.5 (Pessimistic) by using LARS-WG during 2021-2100. Based on the results, the highest values were observed under the RCP8.5 scenario and in NorESM1.1, CanESM2 and HadGEM2-ES GCMs for sunhours, and minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively. Compared to the base period: The highest increase in minimum and maximum temperatures have been observed in Aligudarz station during 2081-2100 with 69% and 25%, respectively. Daily average rainfall and Sun hours might enhance 35.4% in Ahvaz during the years 2061-2080 and 9.8% in Parsabad during the years 2041-2060. On the other hand, the lowest daily values compared to the base period were observed in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios in Ahvaz, with a 0.23% decrease in minimum temperature and a 2.93% increase in maximum temperature. Also, compared to the base periods, the daily average precipitation in Parsabad has decreased by 8.63 % and sun hours in Mianeh have reduced to 14.54%. In general, the southwest may experience more precipitation compared to the northwest in the future.

Keywords

References

Ramezani Etedali H, Ahmadaali K, Gorgin F, Ababaei B. Optimization of the Cropping Pattern of Main Cereals and Improving Water Productivity: Application of the Water Footprint Concept. Irrig Drain. 2019;68(4):765–77.
M, Ritzema H, Bamshad R, Jones E, Fazilatnia M. Application of bio-desalinization for reclamation of salt-affected soil under composted cow manure and deficit irrigation with saline water. Paddy Water Environ. 2020;18(2):469–79.
Lenssen NJL, Schmidt GA, Hansen JE, Menne MJ, Persin A, Ruedy R, et al. Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2019 Jun 27;124(12):6307–26.
Platis DP, Anagnostopoulos CD, Tsaboula AD, Menexes GC, Kalburtji KL, Mamolos AP. Energy analysis, and carbon and water footprint for environmentally friendly farming practices in agroecosystems and agroforestry. Sustain. 2019;11(6).
Pachauri RK, Meyer L, Hallegatte France S, Bank W, Hegerl G, Brinkman S, et al. Ottmar Edenhofer (Germany), Ismail Elgizouli (Sudan), Christopher B. Field (USA), Piers), Mark Howden (Australia) [Internet]. Ipcc. Gian-Kasper Plattner; 2014 [cited 2020 Oct 15]. 4 p. Available from: http://www.ipcc.ch.
Mosavi SH, Soltani S, Khalilian S. Coping with climate change in agriculture: Evidence from Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran. Agric Water Manag [Internet]. 2020;241(April):106332. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106332
Foguesatto CR, Artuzo FD, Talamini E, Machado JAD. Understanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review. Environ Dev Sustain [Internet]. 2020;22(1). Available from: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-0193-0
Jamshidi O, Asadi A, Kalantari K, Azadi H, Scheffran J. Vulnerability to climate change of smallholder farmers in the Hamadan province, Iran. Clim Risk Manag [Internet]. 2019;23:146–59. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.06.002
Farid Giglou B, Ghazavi R, Dokhani S. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Aras River Flow (Case Study: Ardabil Province) [In Persian]. Iran-Water Resour Res [Internet]. 2020;16(3):198–211. Available from: http://www.iwrr.ir/article_118330.html
Kashki A, Imanipour H, Firoozyazdi M. Analysis of temperature changes in East Azerbaijan province with a climate change approach Using the SDSM model [In Persian]. J Arid Reg Geogr Stud [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2022 Mar 16];11(41):44–58. Available from: http://journals.hsu.ac.ir/jarhs/article-1-1636-en.html
Baghanam AH, Eslahi M, Sheikhbabaei A, Seifi AJ. Assessing the impact of climate change over the northwest of Iran: an overview of statistical downscaling methods. Theor Appl Climatol. 2020;141(3–4):1135–50.
Lotfi M, Kamali GA, Meshkatee AH, Varshavian V. Statistical downscaling of climate models projection of minimum temperature under RCP scenarios in Western of Iran [In Persian]. J Agric Meteorol [Internet]. 2020;8(2):3–13. Available from: https://www.agrimet.ir/article_118034.html
Heshmati S, Ramezani Etedali H. Drought Forecasting for Future Periods Using LARS-WG Model: The Case Study of Kermanshah City [In Persian]. T Ctry Plan [Internet]. 2021;13(2):647–69. Available from: https://jtcp.ut.ac.ir/article_84486.html
Ashrafzadeh MR, Naghipour AA, Haidarian M, Kusza S, Pilliod DS. Effects of climate change on habitat and connectivity for populations of a vulnerable, endemic salamander in Iran. Glob Ecol Conserv [Internet]. 2019;19:e00637. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00637
Ghehsareh Ardestani E, Heidari Ghahfarrokhi Z. Ensembpecies distribution modeling of Salvia hydrangea under future climate change scenarios in Central Zagros Mountains, Iran. Glob Ecol Conserv [Internet]. 2021;26:e01488. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01488
Emami F, Koch M. Modeling the impact of climate change on water availability in the Zarrine River Basin and inflow to the Boukan Dam, Iran. Climate. 2019;7(4).
Ahmadi H, Ghalhari GF, Baaghideh M. Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran. Clim Change. 2019;153(1–2):91–103.

Ahmadaali J, Barani GA, Qaderi K, Hessari B. Analysis of the effects ofwater management strategies and climate change on the environmental and agricultural sustainability of Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. Water (Switzerland). 2018;10(2).
Pakmehr S, Yazdanpanah M, Baradaran M. How collective efficacy makes a difference in responses to water shortage due to climate change in southwest Iran. Land use policy [Internet]. 2020;99(May):104798. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104798
Doulabian S, Golian S, Toosi AS, Murphy C. Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for iran using rcp scenarios. J Water Clim Chang. 2021;12(1):166–84.
Birara H, Pandey RP, Mishra SK. Projections of future rainfall and temperature using statistical downscaling techniques in Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Sustain Water Resour Manag [Internet]. 2020;6(5). Available from: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-020-00436-1
Semenov MA, Stratonovitch P. Adapting wheat ideotypes for climate change: Accounting for uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections. Clim Res. 2015;65:123–39.
Meinshausen M, Smith SJ, Calvin K, Daniel JS, Kainuma MLT, Lamarque J, et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Change [Internet]. 2011 Nov 9 [cited 2020 Oct 14];109(1):213–41. Available from: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/
Kalanaki MM, Karandish F, Ritzema H, Kalanaki MM. New pathways and the associated uncertainties for increasing maize water use efficiency under global warming. Arch Agron Soil Sci [Internet]. 2020;00(00):1–15. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1080/03650340.2020.1864340
Karandish F, Kalanaki M, Saberali SF. Projected impacts of global warming on cropping calendar and water requirement of maize in a humid climate. Arch Agron Soil Sci. 2017 Jan 2;63(1):1–13.
Ahmadi M, Azizi G, Kardovani P. The vision of future climate changes based on CMIP5 models and representative concentration pathways (RCP); Case study: Selected stations in Ilam province [In Persian]. Phys Geogr Q [Internet]. 2019;12(43):71–88. Available from: http://jopg.iaularestan.ac.ir/article_666493.html
sharifi haddad neda, Deihim fard R, Nouri O, rahimi moghaddam S. Simulating Grain Yield and Water Use Efficiency in Dominant Maize Cultivars under Water Limited a Climate Change Conditions [In Persian]. J Agroecol [Internet]. 2021;13(1):103–15. Available from: https://agry.um.ac.ir/article_37637.html
Ahmadi H, Azizzadeh J. The impacts of climate change based on regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) projections (case study: Ilam province). Model Earth Syst Environ [Internet]. 2020 Feb 3 [cited 2022 Feb 10];6(2):685–96. Available from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40808-020-00721-0
Mirgol B, Nazari M, Eteghadipour M. Modelling climate change impact on irrigation water requirement and yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), and Fodder Maize (Zea mays L.) in the semi-arid Qazvin plateau, Iran. Agric. 2020;10(3).
Mansouri Daneshvar MR, Ebrahimi M, Nejadsoleymani H. An overview of climate change in Iran: facts and statistics. Environ Syst Res [Internet]. 2019;8(1). Available from: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-019-0135-3
Sharafati A, Pezeshki E. A strategy to assess the uncertainty of a climate change impact on extreme hydrological events in the semi-arid Dehbar catchment in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol. 2020;139(1–2):389–402.