Evaluating probability of agricultural drought risk using diffusion theory (Case Study: Shazand, Khomein, and Saveh Plains)

Document Type : Research Article

Author

Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Arak University, Arak, Iran

Abstract

According to the predictions outlined in global warming models, Iran, especially the plains of the central plateau, has been dealing with increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall. These changes have had harmful effects on agricultural production and the overall sustainability of agriculture and the environment due to ongoing drought conditions. This study utilizes a model to estimate the risk of agricultural drought based on the principles of information diffusion theory. The goal is to assess the likelihood of agricultural drought occurring in the plains of Shazand, Khomein, and Saveh. By using agricultural data and meteorological information, three main aspects were taken into consideration: the susceptibility of environments prone to disasters, the ability to withstand risk, and the collective exposure to risk. To measure the risk of agricultural drought, three indicators were selected: the vulnerability of the area to drought, the percentage of abnormal rainfall, and the frequency of disaster occurrences. The results of the investigation revealed that the assessments of risk, when viewed from the perspective of disaster-prone environments, hazards, and the population exposed to risk, were significantly elevated. Concerning the susceptibility of disaster-prone environments, the examined plains show a concentrated range between severe and extremely severe sensitivities, with values ranging from 0.6 to 0.9. When considering the precariousness of the risk, these regions are facing a notably high level of vulnerability to drought. In evaluating the overall risk, the incidence of drought-related disasters in these areas exceeds 0.5 on the scale. Consequently, the associated probability of such risks materializing is estimated at intervals of approximately 4.8, 3.2, and 1.2 years for the Shazand, Khomein, and Saveh plains, respectively.

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References

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Iranian journal of Ecohydrology
Volume 10, Issue 3
October 2023
Pages 301-319

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History

  • Receive Date: 17 May 2023
  • Revise Date: 12 June 2023
  • Accept Date: 18 July 2023
  • First Publish Date: 12 December 2023
  • Publish Date: 12 December 2023

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