Hydrological Modeling and Flood-Generating Sub-Basin Prioritization Using HEC-HMS in the Kalan Dam Watershed

Bashirgonbad, Mohammad; Jafari, Shadi

doi:10.22059/ije.2026.408949.1903

Hydrological Modeling and Flood-Generating Sub-Basin Prioritization Using HEC-HMS in the Kalan Dam Watershed

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran

² M.Sc. in Watershed Management, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran

10.22059/ije.2026.408949.1903

Abstract

Objective: Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, and in Iran, land use changes and vegetation degradation have significantly increased flood frequency and intensity. Integrated watershed management requires identifying critical flood-producing sub-basins, as treating an entire watershed is impractical. This study aims to identify and prioritize flood-producing sub-basins in the Kalan Dam watershed by integrating the HEC-HMS hydrological model with an individual sub-basin removal sensitivity analysis.
Method: The Kalan Dam watershed in Hamadan Province, Iran, was studied using a 1:25,000 DEM. Physiographic and hydrological parameters were extracted using ArcGIS, ArcHydro, and HEC-GeoHMS. Ten rainfall-runoff events were selected; eight for calibration and two for validation of the HEC-HMS model. The SCS-CN method was used for loss calculation, the Clark unit hydrograph for runoff transformation, and the Muskingum method for routing. Model performance was evaluated using NSE, RMSE, and PBIAS. Critical sub-basins were identified by sequentially removing each sub-basin and calculating the percentage reduction in outlet peak discharge. Specific discharge and reduction per unit area were also computed to eliminate area effects.
Results: The HEC-HMS model showed good performance during validation (high NSE, low RMSE and PBIAS). The individual sub-basin removal analysis revealed uneven contributions to outlet peak discharge. Sub-basin W530, despite having a moderate area, caused the highest reduction in outlet peak discharge when removed, identifying it as the most critical flood-producing sub-basin. Rankings based on specific discharge and reduction per unit area differed significantly from rankings based on absolute discharge, confirming that area alone is an insufficient criterion. Sub-basins with steeper slopes, higher Curve Numbers, and shorter time of concentration contributed more to flood generation.
Conclusions: Integrating HEC-HMS with sub-basin removal sensitivity analysis provides a robust, quantitative framework for prioritizing critical flood-producing areas. For the Kalan Dam watershed, sub-basin W530 requires urgent flood control interventions. Prioritization should not rely solely on area but should incorporate specific discharge and reduction per unit area. This methodology can be extended to other flood-prone semi-arid regions.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Surface water resources

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