Climate change impact on annual precipitation and temperature of Zanjan province with uncertainties investigation

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Payame Noor University, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Technical and Engineering Department, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

In this paper, climate change impact on annual precipitation and temperature series for Zanjan province was assessed and uncertainties were investigated. Spatial average of annual time series of precipitation and temperature for Zanjan province were calculated and then modelled using ARMA model and 100 annual precipitation and temperature series of length 30 years were generated for spatial average of Zanjan province. Using the models, future scenarios of 6 GCMs under 3 emission scenarios were downscaled and 100 annual precipitation and temperature series of length 30 years were generated for each of the scenarios. 90% bounds of the variable statistics for the current condition were compared with the 90% bounds of the corresponding values for all of the future scenarios and the uncertainties were investigated. Model validation showed that the models are adequate for generation of the annual temperature and precipitation series. In confidence level of 90%, it is expected that average temperature of Zanjan province increase from 0.6 to 3.2 ºC and average precipitation change from -25% to +15% in 2035-64 period. So, the uncertainty due to the GCMs structure and the emission scenarios are considerable and should be taken into account.

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References

 
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Iranian journal of Ecohydrology
Volume 4, Issue 3
September 2017
Pages 847-860

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History

  • Receive Date: 05 March 2017
  • Revise Date: 25 April 2017
  • Accept Date: 05 May 2017

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