Risk assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater level (Case study: Gotvand Aghili aquifer)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Water Resource Engineering, Malayer University

2 Shahrood University of Technology

3 University of Tehran

Abstract

In the present study the impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in the Gotvand Aghili aquifer was investigated. For this purpose, groundwater was simulated using the MODFLOW model in the GMS framework for a period of 2002-2012. After calibration of model the values of RMSE for steady and unsteady conditions were 0.751 and 0.852m respectively, and average correlation coefficient of 0.82 was obtained for the verification of model. Then outputs of 10 AOGCM models under the RCP8.5 emission scenarios, the latest assessment report of IPCC, were used to simulate the climate parameters and study their impact of groundwater levels in future. For this purpose, the periods of 2000-1971 and 2024-2015 were selected as the base forecast periods respectively. The 5 climate scenarios (at the risk of 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 0.9) were used for simulation of climate parameters for the future period. Then groundwater levels were predicted for the future period under these scenarios. Based on the results under the risk level of 0.1 the aquifer will experienced the biggest drop of 1.8m and under scenario with risk level of 0.9, the groundwater level will increased 0.48 meters during the future 10 years of 2024 to 2015.

Keywords

Main Subjects


[1]. Doll P, Hoffmann-Dobreva H, Portmanna F.T, Siebertb S, Eickerc A, Rodell M, et al. Impact of water withdrawals from groundwater and surface water on continental water storage variations. Journal of Geodynamics. 2012; 59–60: 143–156.
[2]. Bell A, Zhu T, Xie H, Ringler C. Climate-water interactions-Challenges for improved representation in integrated assessment models. Energy Economics. 2014; 46:510-521.
[3]. IPCC. Technical summary. In: Climate change: Impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific–technical analyses, eds. Watson, R. T., Zinyowera M. C. and Moss R. H., contribution of working group to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge university press, Cambridge. 2001; a:1-53.
[4]. IPCC. Climate change. The science of climate change. Contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Eds. Houghton, J.T., Filho, L.G.M., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Attenberg, A. and Maskell K.. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 2001; b:572.
[5]. IPCC, Summary for policymakers.In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 2014; 1-32.
[6]. Panda D.K, Mishra A, Kumar A. Trend quantification in groundwater levels of Gujarat in western India. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2012; 57 (7): 1325–1336.
[7]. Erturk A, Ekdal A, Gürel M, Karakaya N, Guzel C, Gönenç E. Evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in a small Mediterranean watershed. Science of the Total Environment. 2014; 499: 437-447.
[8]. Naderianfar M, Ansari H, Ziaie A, davary K. Evaluating the groundwater level fluctuations under different climatic conditions in the basin Neyshabour. Irrigation & Water Engineering. 2011; 3(1): 22-37. [Persian].
[9]. Altafi Dadgar M, Mohammadzade H, Nassery H. Simulation of bojnourd aquifer groundwater flow with emphasis on climate change using mathematical model. National Conference on Water Flow and Pollution. University of Tehran. 2012. [Persian].
[10].            Ministry of Energy. 2014. Studies on providing balance sheet for water resources of Great Karoon Basin area, Volume VI (Reports of balance sheet studies on Aghili-Gotvand area), Consulting Engineers of Saman Waterway. 2014. [Persian].
[11].            Shamsai A. Hydraulic flow in porous media: application of mathematical models – computer models (Volume 3). 2nd ed. Tehran: Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic); 2004. [Persian].
 
[12].            Chitsazan M, Kashkouli H. (Translation). Quantitative solutions in hydrogeology and ground water modeling. Writing Neren Kresic. 1nd ed. Ahvaz: Shahid Chamran University; 2002. [Persian].
[13].            Pinder G.F, Cooper H.H. A numerical technique for calculating the transient position of the saltwater front. Wat. Resour. Res. 1970; 6(3): 875-882.
 
[14].            Delghandi M. Risk assessment of climate change impact on wheat yield and provide solutions to its compatibility (Case Study: Southern Khuzestan). Thesis Ph.D. Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz. Iran. 2012. [Persian].
[15].            Ruiz-Ramos M, Minguez MI. Evaluating uncertainty in climate change impacts on crop productivity in the Iberian Peninsula. Climate Research. 2010; 44: 69-82.
Volume 5, Issue 1
April 2018
Pages 111-122
  • Receive Date: 13 May 2017
  • Revise Date: 04 August 2017
  • Accept Date: 23 June 2017
  • First Publish Date: 21 March 2018
  • Publish Date: 21 March 2018