The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Financial and Casualties of Natural Disasters in Iran

Document Type : Research Article


1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran

3 M.Sc, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran


Natural disasters are one of the most important causes of human death. Meanwhile, floods and earthquakes have the highest number of casualties and financial losses. Therefore, given that Iran is one of the top ten countries in the world, Hence, the present study evaluates the effects of macroeconomic variables on casualties and financial losses caused by floods and earthquakes by the WLS method in the period 1339-1398 in Iran. The results of this study showed that one percent increase in the variables of GDP per capita, life expectancy and literacy rate caused a decrease of 1.52, 5.26 and 10.55 percent in flood and earthquake casualties, respectively. Also, a one percent increase in the variables of population density, unemployment rate, government spending on infrastructure and openness of the economy increases by 20.64, 7.47, 4.22 and 4.86 percent, respectively, of the casualties caused by floods and earthquakes. On the other hand, a one percent increase in GDP per capita, population density, government spending on infrastructure and literacy rate caused an increase of 1.86, 13.01, 12.81 and 24.52 percent in financial losses due to floods and earthquakes, respectively. A one percent increase in the variables of life expectancy and investment in physical capital also caused a decrease of 33.22 and 9.9 percent in the financial losses caused by floods and earthquakes, respectively. Therefore, considering the results of the role of economic variables in the amount of financial and casualties caused by floods and earthquakes in Iran is significant, so economic policy to reduce the negative effects of these events is considered necessary.


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Volume 7, Issue 4
January 2021
Pages 921-933
  • Receive Date: 11 May 2020
  • Revise Date: 06 September 2020
  • Accept Date: 06 September 2020
  • First Publish Date: 01 December 2020
  • Publish Date: 21 December 2020