Simulation of Climatic Parameters using Statistical Microscale Models of SDSM and LARS in West Azerbaijan Province

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor, School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 M.S. graduate in Ecohydrology engineering, School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the statistical downscaling models SDSM and LARS-WG in simulating minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation at four stations (Urmia, Maku, Takab, and Mahabad) in West Azerbaijan province, with data from the periods 1987-2010 and 2020-2065.
Method: The study used the statistical downscaling models SDSM and LARS-WG to simulate temperature and precipitation variables at the selected stations. The observed data for the period 1987-2010 and the forecasted data for 2020-2065 were compared in both models. Additionally, to validate the SDSM model, the simulated parameters were compared with NCEP data and real observed data.
Results: The results showed that both models were more accurate in simulating temperature than precipitation. The SDSM model performed better in simulating daily temperature compared to LARS-WG, whereas the precipitation results from the LARS-WG model were slightly more accurate than those from the SDSM model. Additionally, the RMSE values for the SDSM and LARS-WG models for precipitation were 2.84 mm and 3.4 mm, respectively, while for maximum temperature, the RMSE values were 0.02°C and 0.29°C, respectively.
 
Conclusions: Based on the results, the SDSM model demonstrated higher accuracy in simulating both precipitation and temperature compared to the LARS-WG model. This model can be considered a reliable tool for predicting future changes in temperature and precipitation.

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Main Subjects

References

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Iranian journal of Ecohydrology
Volume 11, Issue 3
October 2024
Pages 374-394

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History

  • Receive Date: 23 July 2024
  • Revise Date: 18 August 2024
  • Accept Date: 27 August 2024
  • First Publish Date: 22 September 2024
  • Publish Date: 22 September 2024

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