نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
1 دانشیار دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران
2 فارغالتحصیل دکتری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
3 استادیار دانشکدۀ جغرافی دانشگاه تهران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Climate change caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in future periods causes changes in climatic variables and these changes as the biggest dilemma of the 21st century. Therefore, it is necessary to study the future climate change and vulnerability of water resources. In order to predict the effects of climate change on the hydrological status of Ardebil province, the climate variables for the coming decades and under climate scenarios were predicted. The large-scale data gathering was used to simulate and predict the hydrological situation of the study area. Regarding the effects of climate change on the surface flow of the area, it should be noted that although the results from the simulations by the BILAN model indicate unpredictable changes in the total surface flow in the future period. So that the direct surface flow that flows on the groundwater in all scenarios is lower than the base period which is directly related to the decrease in the amount of precipitation in the future and also the increase in the average temperature in the region. In case of groundwater storage in the region, due to the significant decrease in precipitation and also the decrease in the available moisture content of the soil, as well as the increase in temperature, which leads to an increase in the evaporation rate from the soil surface, the area is examined in the upcoming period and under all scenarios show a decreasing trend.