Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1
Assistant Professor, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran
2
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Mathematics Department, Statistics and Applications
3
Department of Natural Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Kashan University, Kashan, Iran
10.22059/ije.2025.394884.1869
Abstract
This study investigates drought trends in five synoptic stations along southern Iran’s coast (Bandar Abbas, Bandar Lengeh, Bushehr, Chabahar, and Kish) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12- and 48-month time scales for 1985–2021. The analysis revealed alternating drought and wet periods, with a rise in moderate to severe droughts after 2000. Long-term droughts from the 1990s to the early 2000s coincided with ocean-atmospheric patterns like a negative NAO phase and weakened Indian monsoon. Using the MPI-ESM1.2-HR model and SDSM, future precipitation (2023–2043) was projected under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under SSP5-8.5, an increase in short-term drought frequency and a marked decline in cumulative rainfall were projected, especially during 2030–2040. Bandar Abbas, for instance, may experience extremely severe droughts (SPI < –2) in 2032, 2035, and 2040. Although SSP1-2.6 shows improvement after 2040, long-term drought risks persist. Key drivers include the intensification of the Arabian subtropical high, ENSO changes, and mid-latitude jet shifts. Regional variability was noted, with western stations more affected by West Asian systems and Chabahar influenced by the Indian monsoon. The findings underscore the need for adaptive water management, early warning systems, and coordinated climate mitigation efforts.
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