Assessment of the Impact of Centralized MPC-Based Operational Automation on Adequate and Reliable Distribution of Agricultural Water Rights under Surface-Water Allocation Uncertainty

Jamali, Reza; MASHAL, Aburayhan; Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdi; Soltani, Jaber

doi:10.22059/ije.2025.405571.1894

Assessment of the Impact of Centralized MPC-Based Operational Automation on Adequate and Reliable Distribution of Agricultural Water Rights under Surface-Water Allocation Uncertainty

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ PhD. Candidate, Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology (Aburaihan), University College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

² Water Eng. Dept. , Aburayhan Campus,, Emam Reza Blv.

³ Associate Professor, Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology (Aburaihan), University College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

⁴ Associate Professor, Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology (Aburaihan), University College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Email: jsoltani@ut.ac.ir

10.22059/ije.2025.405571.1894

Abstract

Research Topic: This research investigates the comparative performance of an automated operation system in improving the reliability of surface-water distribution among water-right holders in an irrigation network.
Objective: The main objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal effects of surface-water operation system modernization on the adequate and reliable distribution of agricultural water rights among water user cooperatives within the Nekoabad irrigation network. The principal analytical outcome is the precise determination of the contribution of surface-water resources-under water-scarcity conditions at the diversion dam-in meeting the water rights of 163 farmer cooperatives within the network.
Method: Operational simulations were performed for two modes: manual operation (baseline condition) and automated operation using a centralized Model Predictive Controller (MPC). The temporal analysis was based on categorizing surface-water availability at the diversion dam into seven scenarios ranging from normal to extreme shortage. Spatial analysis was conducted by simulating the surface-water distribution process among 163 water-right holders located along thirteen secondary canals of the Nekoabad irrigation district.
Results: The results revealed that, compared with the manual system, the MPC-based operation exhibited significantly higher stability, uniformity, and reliability. Under shortage conditions, the manual system showed nonlinear degradation in adequacy and dependability indices, with a pronounced increase in spatial inequality of water delivery. In contrast, the MPC system maintained a higher mean adequacy, reduced temporal fluctuations, and achieved spatial homogenization, extending the shortage-tolerance threshold by up to 25 percentage points. Spatial correlation analysis of performance indices, statistical distribution of operational outcomes, and surface-water delivery shares all confirmed the superiority of the automated system in sustaining equity and resilience across the irrigation network.
Conclusion: Aligned with the main goal of this study, the practical outcome is the accurate quantification of the percentage and variation range of surface-water deliveries allocated to each of the 163 water outlets under different inflow-supply scenarios at the diversion dam.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Surface water resources

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