Assessment of Land Subsidence Hazard in the Isfahan–Borkhar Plain Using Simple Weighting and Factor Optimization through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Azizi, Rana; Rajabi, Ali M.; ManafiAzar, Ali; Sayari, Mohammad

doi:10.22059/ije.2025.402822.1883

Assessment of Land Subsidence Hazard in the Isfahan–Borkhar Plain Using Simple Weighting and Factor Optimization through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Engineering Geology Department, University of Tehran

² Engineering Geology Department,, University of Tarbiat Madares

³ Department of Water Resources Basic Studies, Regional Water Company of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

10.22059/ije.2025.402822.1883

Abstract

In this study, the potential for land subsidence in the Isfahan-Borkhar plain and urban area was assessed using a simple weighted overlay method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Seven influential factors including aquifer lithology, land use, groundwater extraction rate, recharge, aquifer thickness, distance from faults, and groundwater level fluctuations were analyzed. An initial subsidence potential map, with index values ranging from 52 to 162, was produced using ArcGIS. To optimize the weighting and improve consistency with field conditions, the weights of each parameter were determined through the AHP method, resulting in a final subsidence potential map with index values ranging from 57.4 to 170.7. Validation using InSAR satellite data indicated that the correlation between the predicted potential map and actual subsidence was higher for the AHP method (0.62) compared to the simple weighted overlay approach (0.52). According to the proposed model, the central, northern, and southwestern areas of the Isfahan-Borkhar plain and urban region exhibit the highest subsidence risk and require the implementation of groundwater management strategies. Overall, the results confirm that applying advanced multi-criteria approaches such as AHP can significantly improve the accuracy of hazard assessment and provide practical guidance for local decision-makers.

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