Land Use Change Prediction Using CA-Markov Model in Manderjan Watershed, Zayandeh Rood

Najafi, Ali; Honarbakhsh, Afshin; Pajuhesh, Mahdi; Abdollahi, Khodayar

doi:10.22059/ije.2026.408768.1902

Land Use Change Prediction Using CA-Markov Model in Manderjan Watershed, Zayandeh Rood

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Ph.D. candidate of Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Science, Shahrekord University, shahrekord, Iran

² Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Science, Shahrekord University, shahrekord, Iran

10.22059/ije.2026.408768.1902

Abstract

The Manderjan watershed has not been immune to drastic changes in land use. In general; the aim of this study is to predict land use changes using the CA-Markov model in Manderjan watershed area, Isfahan province. For this purpose, Landsat satellite images from 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 (in 10-year time intervals) were used. a land cover map was prepared in 4 land use classes (including agricultural land, mountainous land, pasture, and residential land).
The kappa coefficient obtained from the land use map of 2011 and the forecast was 0.96 and for 2021 it was 0.969. The results show that the differences between different classes are different and their magnitude is generally less than 9% in 2011, and less than 15% in 2021. The study of the trend of land use changes in 2031 and 2041 compared to 2021 showed that the largest increase in terms of area is agricultural land. Among the decreasing changes, pasture will be seen with 315 and 868 hectares, respectively, in 2031 and 2041. The increase in the area of agricultural and residential land has caused the area of pasture land to decrease by the same amount in 2031 and 2041.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Ecohydrology

References

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