Journal of Ecohydrology

Journal of Ecohydrology

Flood Hazard Spatial Zoning and Critical Area Assessment for Sustainable Management and Development (Case Study: Kelaroud Babol Watershed, Mazandaran Province)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors
Seyed Asadullah Hejazi 1
Masumeh Rajabi 2
Sabikeh Rohanizadeh 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz. Iran.
2 Professor of Geomorphology, Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
3 PhD Student in Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz.Iran.
10.22059/ije.2026.405335.1893
Abstract
Research Topic: Flood hazard assessment is essential for mitigating the increasing impacts of floods intensified by climate change and land‑use alterations. The Kelarud –Babol watershed in northern Iran is highly vulnerable due to its geomorphological and climatic characteristics.
Objective: This study aims to evaluate spatial flood hazard susceptibility and identify the most influential conditioning factors using the Evidential Belief Function (EBF) model within a GIS environment.
Method: Historical flood occurrence data from 2024–2025 were used as training samples. Conditioning factors including elevation, slope, aspect, distance from river, drainage density, and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) were derived from a digital elevation model. The EBF model, based on Dempster–Shafer evidence theory, was applied to assess the contribution of each factor. Model performance was validated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC).
Results: The results indicated that distance from river, slope, and elevation were the most significant factors influencing flood occurrence. The flood susceptibility map showed a strong spatial agreement with observed flood events. The EBF model achieved a high predictive accuracy with an AUC value of 94/0.
Conclusions: The findings confirm that the EBF model is a reliable and efficient tool for flood hazard zonation and can support flood risk management and spatial planning in flood‑prone watersheds.
Keywords
Statistical model
EBF
Kela Rud
Flooding
TWI
Subjects
  • Azad Talab, M., Mehnaz, Sh., Shahabi, H., Heiman, Sh., Shirzadi, A., Ataollah, Ch., Kamran. 2020. Flood hazard zoning in Sanandaj city using combined statistical index and evidential belief function models. Urban Studies Quarterly, 9(36), 40–27. (in Persian).
  • Alavi, N., Khademi, K., & Moradi, M. 2022. Landslide hazard zoning using the evidential belief function (EBF) model in a GIS environment: A case study of the Dez watershed. Geomorphological Research, 13(2), 115–130. Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran (in Persian)
  • Abbasi, S. 2021. Evaluation of urban resilience against floods with a sustainable development approach: A case study of Shiraz City. Sustainable Urban Management Quarterly, 8(3), 65–82. University of Shiraz. (in Persian).
  • Bui, D. T., Khosravi, K., Shahabi, H., et al. 2023. Prediction of flood‑prone areas using ensemble machine‑learning models and topographic indices in GIS environment. Journal of Hydrology, 617, 129037. (in Persian)
  • Beven, K. J., & Kirkby, M. J. 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin, 24(1), 43–69.
  • Bui, D. T., Rahmati, M., & Dou, T. T. 2022. Flood susceptibility assessment using geomorphological indices and distance from rivers in a GIS environment (Case study: Northern Iran). Hydrology and Earth Sciences Research Quarterly, 17(2), 95–110. (in Persian).
  • Davand, Kh., Shahabi, H., & Salari, M. 2021. Flood hazard zoning in Ilam city using the evidential belief function (EBF) model. Geography and Environmental Hazards, 10(2), 1–20. (in Persian).
  • Esmaeili, R., Mohammadi, F., & Ghanbari, M. 2024. The importance of controlling the consequences of coastal floods with a sustainable coastal tourism development approach. Journal of Environmental Management and Planning, 11(1), 45–62. University of Gilan (in Persian).
  • 2008. ArcGIS 9.3 Desktop Help: Surface Analysis and Slope Calculation. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA, USA.
  • Fallah, F., Zeynivand, H., Tahmasbipour, N., & Haghi Zadeh, A.2023. Identification of flood-prone areas using the evidential belief function (EBF) model: A case study of Silakhor plain in Lorestan Province. Applied Water Engineering Research, 1, 138–149. (in Persian).
  • Forests, Rangelands and Watershed Management Organization of Iran. 2020. Basic watershed management studies report of Kelarud bar basin, Babol County (Mazandaran Province).
  • Hejazi, S. A., Rezaei Moghaddam, M. H., Karami, F., Yarahmadi, J., & Bigham, A. 2022. Flood potential and prioritization of areas in terms of flood susceptibility for erosion control in the Hajilar watershed. Journal of Environmental Erosion Research, 12(3), 41–56. (in Persian).
  • Khan, N. A., Alzahrani, H., Bai, S., Hussain, M., Tayyab, M., Ullah, S., Ullah, K., & Khalid, S. 2025. Flood risk assessment in the Swat River catchment through GIS‑based multi‑criteria decision analysis. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 13, Article 1567796.
  • Manbari, F., Maleki, A., & Nayeri, H. 2023. Factor analysis of morphometric parameters and flood modeling: A case study of the watersheds in Kurdistan Province. Quantitative Geomorphology Research, 12(1), 224–24. (in Persian).
  • Nahin, K. T. K., Islam, S., &Sumaiya Binte, I. (2023). Flood vulnerability assessment in the Jamuna River floodplain using multi‑criteria decision analysis: A case study in Jamalpur district, Bangladesh. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14520. Heliyon, 9(4).
  • Oskouhi, M., Rezaei, S., and Ahmadi, N. 2023. An analysis of flood governance and risk management with a sustainable development approach. Journal of Natural Hazards Management and Water Governance, 10(2), 85–102. University of Tehran. (in Persian).
  • Rajabi, M., Roostaei, Sh., & Barzkar, M. 2022. Assessment of flood potential in sub-watersheds based on morphometric parameters and correlation analysis (Case study: Zab–Mirabad watershed). Geography and Planning, 26(79), 127–139. (In Persian).
  • Rahmati, O., Pour Ghasemi, H. R., & Zeini Vand, H. 2016. Flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and weights‑of‑evidence models in GIS. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9(2), 155. (in Persian).
  • Rezaei Moghaddam, M. H., Rajabi, M., & Mousavi, S. M. 2024. Flood hazard zoning in the Rud Zard watershed using the multi-criteria decision analysis VIKOR model. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, (41, Autumn 2024), 19–38. (in Persian).
  • Tehrani MS, Shabani F, Javier DN, Kumar L. 2018. Soil erosion susceptibility mapping for current and 2100 climate conditions using evidential belief function and frequency ratio. Geomat Nat Hazard Risk 8:1695–1714. (in Persian).
  • Zare, S., et al. 2019. Analysis of the effects of slope and land use on surface runoff in the northern watersheds of Iran. Iranian Journal of Earth Sciences, 49(3), 211–223. (in Persian).
Journal of Ecohydrology
Volume 12, Issue 4
Autumn 2026
Pages 1025-1049

  • Receive Date 30 September 2025
  • Revise Date 13 November 2025
  • Accept Date 18 December 2025
  • First Publish Date 22 December 2025
  • Publish Date 22 December 2025