Flood Hazard Spatial Zoning and Critical Area Assessment for Sustainable Management and Development  (Case Study: Kelaroud Babol Watershed, Mazandaran Province)

Hejazi, Seyed Asadullah; Rajabi, Masumeh; Rohanizadeh, Sabikeh

doi:10.22059/ije.2026.405335.1893

Flood Hazard Spatial Zoning and Critical Area Assessment for Sustainable Management and Development (Case Study: Kelaroud Babol Watershed, Mazandaran Province)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Associate Professor, Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz. Iran.

² Professor of Geomorphology, Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

³ PhD Student in Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz.Iran.

10.22059/ije.2026.405335.1893

Abstract

Research Topic: Flood hazard assessment is essential for mitigating the increasing impacts of floods intensified by climate change and land‑use alterations. The Kelarud –Babol watershed in northern Iran is highly vulnerable due to its geomorphological and climatic characteristics.
Objective: This study aims to evaluate spatial flood hazard susceptibility and identify the most influential conditioning factors using the Evidential Belief Function (EBF) model within a GIS environment.
Method: Historical flood occurrence data from 2024–2025 were used as training samples. Conditioning factors including elevation, slope, aspect, distance from river, drainage density, and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) were derived from a digital elevation model. The EBF model, based on Dempster–Shafer evidence theory, was applied to assess the contribution of each factor. Model performance was validated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC).
Results: The results indicated that distance from river, slope, and elevation were the most significant factors influencing flood occurrence. The flood susceptibility map showed a strong spatial agreement with observed flood events. The EBF model achieved a high predictive accuracy with an AUC value of 94/0.
Conclusions: The findings confirm that the EBF model is a reliable and efficient tool for flood hazard zonation and can support flood risk management and spatial planning in flood‑prone watersheds.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Water Resources Management in Natural Ecosystems

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