Future studies of water crisis in Iran based on processing scenario

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Future studies PhD student, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Iran

2 Faculty of new Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran

Abstract

According to studies by 2050 more than 15 percent of world people, most of them are in the Middle East and Africa will experience severe water crisis. Future water crisis is one of the most potential for international conflict and security challenges that have the potential to become a major international crisis. Iran as a country with abundant water stress and is located in the critical regional Middle East, faced with the worrying prospect, that If do not set the correct management and favorable domestic and international policies for the future, will be environmental crises, political, social, economic and even military - security inside and outside the political boundaries. Aspects and consequences of the crisis could challenge the country's independence and territorial integrity. Therefore, it is essential to recognize the consequences and how to manage them. The most accurate and the best way to know the future events, scripting, which in this study based on the main drivers water issue in Iran: 1) Population growth, 2) Growing demand for consumption and 3) Climate change, the drivers is extracted based on Delphi method and the Panel of Experts, four possible scenarios could be discussed. The four scenarios include: 1) Iran is unsafe; escalation of the crisis, 2) Defuse the crisis, 3) The postponement of the crisis in the short term, 4) The postponement of the crisis in the long term. By postulating each of these scenarios, can be a precise roadmap and strategy for correct management and reasonable facing a water crisis for coming years, prepared and placed on the agenda of organizations and institutions.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Keywords

Main Subjects


منابع
[1]. Bebran, Sedigheh, Nazli, Hoonar bakhsh, 1387, Crisising the Water Situation in Iran and the World, Tehran, Journal - Research Strategies, year XVI, No. 48, pp. 193- 212.
[2]. Report Futures of Iran, 1394, Coming out Tehran, specialized media futures: http://www.ayandeban.ir/iran1393/.
[3]. Shahedi, Mehdi, Talebi, Fatemeh, 1392, Provide multi-functional indicator in order to Check the balance of water resources and sustainable development, Journal of water and sustainable development, Tehran, first year, first issue, pages 73 to 79.
[4].James, Bill,1981, Middle EastAssociation ofNorthAmericaBulletin (Vol.5, No. 2, Dec. 1981), P. 32

 [5].Friedman, George, 2010,The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

Publisher: Anchor ISBN 10: 0767923057.

[6]. Laurence C. Smith, The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future Published by Dutton, a member of Penguin Group (USA) InceISBN: 9781101453162.

[7]. Maria GiaoutziBartolomeo, Sapio,2013, Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, Published by springer ISBN: 978-1-4614-5214-0 (Print) 978-1-4614-5215-7 (Online).
[8]. Slaughter, Richard,1993,The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies as an Evolving Process, Futures, Volume 28, Issue 9, November 1996, Pages 799-812
[9]. Bell, Daniel,2001, Future of Technology, Publisher: PelandukPubnsSdnBhd (December 2001)
[10]. Bell, Wendell, 2004,Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New EraPublisher: Transaction Publishers (February 1, 2004),ISBN-10: 0765805669.
[11]. Cornish, Edward, 2005, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, Publisher: World Future Society (October 3, 2005),
[12]. Keyghobadi, Mohsen, 1394, Three Images of the Future, Future Global Scenarios, think tanks, industry and technology publications.
[13]. NASA Reports The Water Situation in Iran, 2008, NASA Reports The Water Situation in Iran,http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/Grace/news/grace20130212.html.
[14]. Entered the third stage of drought in Iran, Editorial Mehr News Agency, http://www.mehrnews.com/news/2104283.
[15]. Bazi, Khodarahem, Khosravi, Somayeh, 1389, Water Crisis in the Middle East (Challenges and Solutions), the Fourth International Congress on Islamic World Geographers, Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchestan University, http://www.civilica.com/Paper-ICIWG04-ICIWG04_096.html.
[16].Warning about taking so much water, 1395, Editorial of tabnak, http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/592178.
[17]. Sinéad,Lehane, The Iranian Water Crisis, Research Analyst Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme, Published by Future Directions International Pty Ltd. 27 February 2014.
[18]. Ricard C. Fotz, Irans Water Crisis: Cultural, Political, and Ethical Dimension, Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 15: 357–380, 2002.
[19]. Future Directions International(FDI), Water: Our Future, Edited by: Mr Gary KleynMr Tasman Luttrell, published BY Future Directions International Desborough House, 2011.
[20]. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Coping with water scarcity, publications by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2012
[21]. Confronting the Global Water Crisis Through Research(scival), Globally and across disciplines, water resources research expands as countries invest to solve growing problems, 2011.
[22]. Lehane, Sinéad (2014), The Iranian Water Crisis, Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme, Published by Future Directions International Pty Ltd.
[23]. Karl, A. Witfogel, Oriental Despotism: A Comparative Study of Total Power new Haven & London: Yale., 2008.
[24]. Larijani, Kaveh, 2005,Irans Water Crises, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Ersa 45 congress of the European regional science, verji university.
[25]. Wagar, Warren, The Next three futures, New york: praeger, 1991.
Volume 3, Issue 1
March 2016
Pages 1-17
  • Receive Date: 10 January 2016
  • Revise Date: 05 August 2016
  • Accept Date: 17 March 2016
  • First Publish Date: 20 March 2016
  • Publish Date: 20 March 2016