Future studies of water crisis in Iran based on processing scenario

Document Type : Research Article


1 Future studies PhD student, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Iran

2 Faculty of new Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran


According to studies by 2050 more than 15 percent of world people, most of them are in the Middle East and Africa will experience severe water crisis. Future water crisis is one of the most potential for international conflict and security challenges that have the potential to become a major international crisis. Iran as a country with abundant water stress and is located in the critical regional Middle East, faced with the worrying prospect, that If do not set the correct management and favorable domestic and international policies for the future, will be environmental crises, political, social, economic and even military - security inside and outside the political boundaries. Aspects and consequences of the crisis could challenge the country's independence and territorial integrity. Therefore, it is essential to recognize the consequences and how to manage them. The most accurate and the best way to know the future events, scripting, which in this study based on the main drivers water issue in Iran: 1) Population growth, 2) Growing demand for consumption and 3) Climate change, the drivers is extracted based on Delphi method and the Panel of Experts, four possible scenarios could be discussed. The four scenarios include: 1) Iran is unsafe; escalation of the crisis, 2) Defuse the crisis, 3) The postponement of the crisis in the short term, 4) The postponement of the crisis in the long term. By postulating each of these scenarios, can be a precise roadmap and strategy for correct management and reasonable facing a water crisis for coming years, prepared and placed on the agenda of organizations and institutions.


Main Subjects

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Volume 3, Issue 1
March 2016
Pages 1-17
  • Receive Date: 10 January 2016
  • Revise Date: 05 August 2016
  • Accept Date: 17 March 2016
  • First Publish Date: 20 March 2016
  • Publish Date: 20 March 2016