Assessing the conservation impacts of climate change based on temperature projected on 21 century (Case study: Arazkoseh and Nodeh stations)

Document Type : Research Article


1 MSc Student of Watershed Management, Gonbad Kavous University, Iran

2 Dep. Of Range and Watershed Management, Gonbad KavousUniversity, Iran


Assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution. In this study we projected future changes in maximum temperature and minimum temperature under CMIP3 SRES and CMIP5 RCPs scenarios with two station-based datasets (Arazkoseh and Nodeh) of the eastern Golestan province. Change scenarios (2046-2065 and 2080-2099) are compared to the reference period (1986-2005).Therefore, 8 GCM models under 6 emission scenarios are downscaled by LARS-WG and SDSM. The results indicated that the largest increase in temperature among the old emission scenarios and new emission scenario are projected by A1B and RCP8.5, respectively. The variation between model projections is considerable. The uncertainty range is large for the change in warm seasonal period. For the two future periods, the downscaling methods produce seasonal increases in the temperature with an almost ordinal order of summer, spring, winter and autumn. Also, results show that temperature indices based on seasonal maxima are generally projected to increase more than minima. In general, uncertainty generates large spread ranges of estimated climate change impacts, therefore due to wide ranges of temperatures projection, to provide a complete picture of possible climate change impact studies that focus on a single or a few of climate models open to the charge of cherry-picking.
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Main Subjects

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