Evaluating the impact of climate change on runoff using hydrological model (Case study: Bazoft-Samsami Watershed)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 . PhD Student of Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Iran

2 University of Kashan, Iran 2. Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences,

3 Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran

4 Faculty of Water and Soil Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

Abstract

Increasing greenhouse gases in recent decades and increasing its resulting temperature has causes the imbalance of the Earths climate system and widespread climate changes in most regions of Earth planet. Development strategic policy in this area has been forced with a big challenge because of the need for water in the central region on the one hand and water resource constraints on the other hand. In this study, first, WetSpa rainfall-runoff model was calibrated for Bazoft-Samsami watershed as one of the important sub-basins of Karun basin. Then, values of temperature and precipitation for future period were downscaled based on climate change scenarios with atmospheric general circulation model outputs (HadCM3) for three scenarios of A1B, A2 and B2 using LARS-WG model. Then, to simulate the basin runoff, data were introduced to WetSpa model. The results verified the performance of LARS-WG model in estimating rain and temperature. Also, the results showed that runoff in statistical periods of 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 compared with observation period in all three scenarios has increased %8.86 and %4.83, respectively, and has decreased in 2041-2070 to the amount of %7.25. This subject indicates the impact of climate change on runoff in mid-term future period in studied watershed. So, considering the obtained results, the policy of programming in order to adapt to climate change is necessary in Bazoft-samsami watershed.
 
 

Keywords

Main Subjects


 
[1]. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007 Summary for policy makers. In: IPCC. Climate change: The physical Science basic, Contribution of working group first to the Fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge university press. 2007; 450 p.
[2]. Alizade A, Sayyari N, Hesami-Kermani MR, Banayan Avval, M, Farid Hosseini E, Assessment of effects of climate change on water resources and agriculture water using, Water and Soil Journal, 2010; (24): 815-835.
[3]. Zeinivand H., and De Smedt F, Spatially distributed modeling of soil erosion and sediment transport at watershed scale, World Environmental & Water Resources Congress (EWRI), 2009; 17-21 May, Kansas City, USA.
[4]. Zehabion B, Goodarzi MR, Massah A. Application of SWAT model for estimating runoff in future periods affected by climate change, Journal of Climatology. 2010; third and fourth number, 43-58 [Persian].
[5]. Minville M, Brissette F, Leconte R. Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a nordic watershed, Journal of Hydrology, 2008; 358 (1-2): 70– 83.
[6]. Abdo KS, Fiseha BM, Rientjes T, Gieske ASM, and Haile AT., Assessment of climate change impacts on the
hydrology of Gilgel Abay catchment in Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrological Processes. 2009; 23 (26): 3661-3669.
[7]. Kamal A, Massah Bavani A, Gudarzi M. Assessment of Hydrological impacts of climate change on Qareh Soo sub-basin, 2nd National Congress on Dam Construction, Islamic Azad University of Zanjan, Zanjan, 2010; Iran, 10 pp. [Persian].
[8]. Liu X, Coulibaly P. Downscaling ensemble weather predictions for improved week-2 hydrologic forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 2011; (12): 1564-1580.
[9]. Laleh Siyah M, Fatahi E, Mahsafar H. The impact of climate change on river basin runoff Karum, the first national conference of the desert. 2012; 15 p [Persian].
[10]. Silberstein R, Aryal D, Jacqueline P, Mark B, Michael C, Stephen B, Lidia H, Geoffrey B, Michele VN, McFarlane D. Climate change and runoff in south-western Australia. Journal of Hydrology. 2012; 475: 441-455
[11]. Hamidiyan M, Soltani J, Ghandehari GH. Assess the impact of climate change on runoff chatchment Bar and Taghan Nishapurtimes the output of general circulation models (HadCM3). The first National Conference on Water and meteorology Iran, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran. 2013; 11 p. [Persian].
[12]. Bavay M, Grünewald T, Lehning M. Response of snow cover and runoff to climate change in high Alpine catchments of Eastern Switzerland. Adv. Water Resources. 2013; (55): 4-16.
[13]. Ashofteh PS, Bozorg Hadad O. Provide probabilistic approach to evaluate the effects of climate change on runoff. Journal of Water Resources, the sixth year.2013; 66-51 [Persian].
[14]. Lei H, Yang D, Huang M. Impacts of climate change and vegetation dynamics on runoff in the mountainous region of the Haihe River basin in the past five decades. Journal of Hydrology, 2014; (511): 786-79.
[15]. Sohrabiyan E, Meftah M, Ghorbani KH, Goliyan S, Zakeriniya M. The effect of climate change on hydrology model with the involvement of discharge areas (Case Study: Galikesh Area in Golestan Province). Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, the second number. 2014 ; 111 125. [Persian].
[16]. Hosseini SH, Ghorbani MA, Massah A. Rainfall-runoff modeling in the field of climate change in order to predict future trends Sofi Chay. Journal of Watershed Management.2015; Issue 11. [Persian].
[17]. Godarzi M, Salahi B, Hosseini SA. The effect of climate change on surface runoff changes (Case Study: Oroomeyeh). Ecohydrology. 2015; (2): 175-189. [Persian].
[18]. Zeinivand H., and De Smedt F, Spatially distributed modeling of soil erosion and sediment transport at watershed scale, World Environmental & Water Resources Congress (EWRI), 2009; 17-21 May, Kansas City, USA.
 [19]. Semenov, MA, Brooks RJ, BarrowEM, Richardson CW, Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators in diver’s climates, Climate Research, 1998; (10): 95-107.
[20]. Wang Z, Batelaan O, De Smedt F. “A distributed model for Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants and Atmosphere”. Journal of Physical Chemistry Earth, 1996; 21:189-193.
[21]. Liu YB., De Smet F, WetSpa of Manual, 2004; 1-126.
[22]. Liu YB, De Smedt F, WetSpa Extension, A GIS-based hydrologic model for flood prediction and watershed management and erosion and sediment transport simulation, Documentation and User Manual. 2004; 155 PP.
[23]. Talebmorad H, The effects of climate change on surface and underground water resources comprehensive hydrological model HydroGeoSphere in Hamedan-Bahar plain, Master Thesis, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology.2011
[24]. Bahremand A, Simulating the effects of reforestation on floods using spatially distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS. PhD thesis of Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije universiteity Brussel, Brussels, Belgium. 2006; 150
[25]. Nurmohamed R, Naipal S, De Smedt F, Hydrologic modeling of the upper suriname river basin using WetSpa and Arcview GIS, Journal of Spatial Hydrology, 2006; 6 (1): 1-17.
[26]. Zeinivand H., and De Smedt F, Prediction of snowmelt floods with a distributed hydrological model using a physical snow mass and energy balance approach, Natural Hazards Journal, 2010; 54 (2): 451-468.
[27]. Safari A, De Smedt F, Moreda F, WetSpa model application in the distributed model intercomparison project (DMIP2). Journal of Hydrology. 2012; (418): 78-89.