Simulation of snowmelt runoff under climate change scenarios in Armand basin

Document Type : Research Article


1 PhD Student of Climatology, College of Geography, Kharazmy University, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmy University, Tehran, Iran


Climate change is a major environmental problem because melting processes of the glaciers and snow packs are sensitive to climate change. The current study aims to  predict future changes in climatic parameters, estimate changes in snow covered area and snowmelt runoff under scenarios of climate change in Armand basin. To investigate the effect of climate on precipitation and temperature in Armand basin, three models (NorESM1-M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CSIRO-MK3.6.0) were used under the scenarios RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6. Temperature and precipitation in the next four periods (2021-2030, 2031- 2040, 2041-2050 and 2051-2060) under all three scenarios were calculated. Also, the daily images MODIS (Mod10A1) were used to determine the snow covered area in the basin. The relationship between the snow covered area with the observed temperature and precipitation was studied and the results have been used to predict future snow cover. The results showed that all three scenarios of RCP predict increased temperature and reduced precipitation and snow cover. The study of snowmelt runoff in the observation period (November 2000-May 2006) showed that about 47.7 of the annual runoff in the basin is related to snowmelt. Most snowmelt runoff volume has occurred during the winter. The contribution of total water produced by melting snow during the fall and spring was 34.9 and 52.8 percent, respectively;  along with snowmelt, it is expected that runoff will be reduced by about 0.12 cubic meters per second per year.


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Volume 4, Issue 2
June 2017
Pages 357-368
  • Receive Date: 14 January 2017
  • Revise Date: 03 March 2017
  • Accept Date: 15 March 2017
  • First Publish Date: 22 June 2017