Uncertainty analysis of temperature and precipitation variation influenced by climate change (Case Study: Southern Khorasan Province)

Document Type : Research Article


university of birjand


For survey of climate change effects In this research fifteen GCMs models are used. By using downscaling method of LARS-WG large scale projections of GCMs output subgrided from high resolutions to local coordinate. For this aim, observation data (1990-2010) of synoptic stations in province are collected and was assumed as base period. Trend was fulfilled by Man-Kendal as well as uncertainty was carried out by bootstrapping function. Annual simulations of rainfall and temperature were used as entrance to Bootstrap. Confidence interval for each station was determined in 0.09 levels. Results about performance of GCMs showed that almost all models haven’t high ability to simulation of behavior of precipitation pattern. However performance of these models for simulation of variation of least and most temperature was very good. Results of trend analysis for stations and province showed that decrease of rainfall and increase of average temperature. By comparison of variation of temperature in future than historical period it is founded that minimum and maximum temperature will have 0.6 decrease and 2 increase respectively. also uncertainty analysis showed that there are significant sources of uncertainty in simulation of meteorological components. Also annual precipitation variations in future are more severe than historical period.


Main Subjects

[1]. Mani A, Tsai FT. Ensemble Averaging Methods for Quantifying Uncertainty Sources in Modeling Climate Change Impact on Runoff Projection. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2016 Dec 1:04016067..
[2]. Eghdamirad S, Johnson F, Woldemeskel F, Sharma A. Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in upper air climate variables. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2016 Apr 27;121(8):3859-74.
[3]. Leedale J, Tompkins AM, Caminade C, Jones AE, Nikulin G, Morse AP. Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty. Geospatial health. 2016 Mar 31;11(1s).
[4].Delghandi M, Moazenzadeh R. Assessment of temporal and special variation of Iran’s rainfall and temperature under climate change conditions. By considering of uncertainty of AOGCM and emission scenarios. Iranian journal of ECO HYDROLOGY. 2016 Dec 16;3(3). 321-331. [Persian]
[5].Kaboli H. Uncertainty of daily maximum rainfall esission scenarios of greenhouse gases on 2040. (case study:Razavi Khorasan province).Iranian journal of ECO HYDROLOGY. 2016 Feb25;2(4). 455-465. [Persian]
[6]. Fakhri M, Farzaneh MR, Eslamian S, Khordadi MJ. Confidence interval assessment to estimate dry and wet spells under climate change in Shahrekord Station, Iran. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2012 Aug 7;18(7):911-8.
[7]. Farzaneh MR, Eslamian S, Samadi SZ, Akbarpour A. An appropriate general circulation model (GCM) to investigate climate change impact. International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology. 2012 Jan 1;2(1):34-47.
[8].Etemadi H, Samadi S, Sharifikia M. Simulation of the Future Climatic Changes in Jask Area and Its Impact on Hara Forests. Geography and develop. 2014 Jul 28;13(41). 87-104. [persian]
[9].Ghermezcheshmeh B, Rasuli A, Rezaei-Banafsheh M, Massah A, Khorshiddoost A. Uncertainty analyzing of Neural Network in downscaling of HadCM3 data with bootstrap confidence interval method. 2014 Aug 2;7(3). 306-316. [Persian]
[10]. Chen J, Brissette FP, Chaumont D, Braun M. Performance and uncertainty evaluation of empirical downscaling methods in quantifying the climate change impacts on hydrology over two North American river basins. Journal of Hydrology. 2013 Feb 4;479:200-14.
[11]. Ahmed KF, Wang G, Silander J, Wilson AM, Allen JM, Horton R, Anyah R. Statistical downscaling and bias correction of climate model outputs for climate change impact assessment in the US northeast. Global and Planetary Change. 2013 Jan 31;100:320-32.
[12].Ebrahim GY, Jonoski A, van Griensven A, Di Baldassarre G. Downscaling technique uncertainty in assessing hydrological impact of climate change in the Upper Beles River Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology Research. 2013 Apr 1;44(2):377-98.
[13].Jafarzadeh A, Khozeymehnejad H, Khashei A, and Bazi J. Zoning impact of climate change on rainfall patterns (Case study: South Khorasan province). Congressional water harvesting and watershed management. University of Birjand. 2012. [Persian]
[14]. Brooks CE, Carruthers N. Handbook of statistical methods in meteorology. Handbook of statistical methods in meteorology.. 1953.
[15]. Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G. Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of hydrology. 2002 Mar 1;259(1):254-71.
[16]. Semenov MA, Barrow EM, Lars-Wg A. A stochastic weather generator for use in climate impact studies. User’s manual, Version. 2002 Aug;3.
[17].Jafarzadeh A, Khashei-siuki A, Shahidi A. Assessment two methods of statistical downscaling LARS-WG and SDSM in estimates of climate parameters variation (Case study: Birjand plain). Journal of water and soil conservation. 2016 July 19;23(4). [Persian]
[18]. Duan K, Mei Y. A comparison study of three statistical downscaling methods and their model-averaging ensemble for precipitation downscaling in China. Theoretical and applied climatology. 2014 May 1;116(3-4):707-19.
[19]. Wilby RL, Tomlinson OJ, Dawson CW. Multi-site simulation of precipitation by conditional resampling. Climate Research. 2003 Apr 10;23(3):183-94.
[20]. Efron B, Tibshirani RJ. An introduction to the bootstrap New York. NY: Chapman and Hall. 1993.
[21]. Saboohi R, Soltani S, Khodagholi M. Trend analysis of temperature parameters in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2012 Aug 1;109(3-4):529-47.
[22]. Zarenistanak M, Dhorde AG, Kripalani RH. Temperature analysis over southwest Iran: trends and projections. Theoretical and applied climatology. 2014 Apr 1;116(1-2):103-17.
[23].Tabari, H. & P. H. Talaee (2011) Recent trends of mean maximum and minimum air temperatures in the western half of Iran. Meteorology and atmospheric physics, 111, 121.
[24]. Sabohi R, Soltani S. Trend analysis of climatic factors in great cities of Iran. JWSS-Isfahan University of Technology. 2009 Jan 15;12(46):303-21.
[25].Semiromi S, Moradi H, Khodagholi M. Predicted changes in some of climate variables using downscale model LARS-WG and output of HADCM3 model under different scenarios. Watershed Engineering and Management. 2014 Aug 16;7(2). 145-156. [Persian]
[26]. Etemadi H, Samadi SZ, Sharifikia M. Statistical downscaling of climatic variables in Shadegan Wetland Iran. Earth Sci Clim Chang. 2012;1:508.
[27].Ebrazi A. Redownscaling rainfall and its rule in flood frequency analysis influenced climate change (case study: southern Khorasan). [master’s thesis]. University of Birjand. 2013. [Persian]
[28].Torkzad H. Uncertainty analysis in assessment of climate change impact on estimating the future climate parameters (case study of South Khorasan province). [master’s thesis]. University of Birjand. 2011. [Persian]
[29].Hadizadeh M. Forecasting and frequency analysis of drought under effect of climate change in southern Khorasan[master’s thesis]. University of Birjand. 2011. [Persian]
[30].Bidokhti Z. Assessment of spatial uncertainty in irrigation methods adaptation to climate change. [master’s thesis]. University of Birjand. 2013. [Persian]
Volume 4, Issue 4
January 2018
Pages 943-953
  • Receive Date: 28 February 2017
  • Revise Date: 29 May 2017
  • Accept Date: 17 May 2017
  • First Publish Date: 22 December 2017