استفاده از تئوری RUN در تحلیل شدت، مدت و دورۀ بازگشت خشکسالی (مطالعۀ موردی: استان فارس)

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مربی، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه فسا

2 استادیار، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و کویرشناسی، دانشگاه یزد

3 دانشجوی دکتری بیابان‌زدایی، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و کویرشناسی، دانشگاه یزد

چکیده

خشکسالی نشانۀ واضحی از نوسانات اقلیمی است که بر جوامع بشری بیشتر از دیگر پدیده‏های طبیعی تأثیر می‌گذارد. به منظور بررسی خشکسالی از داده‏های بارش ماهانۀ نُه ایستگاه همدیدی استان فارس طی دورۀ آماری 20 ساله (1997ـ 2016) استفاده شد. ابتدا پس از محاسبۀ شدت خشکسالی با استفاده از مفهوم تئوری RUN، ‌به انتخاب بهترین نمایه از میان نمایه‏های DI، PNPI، SIAP، RAI، SPI و BMDI اقدام شد. در ادامه، با استفاده از نرم‌افزار 6.43 SMADA سری زمانی شدت خشکسالی بر توابع توزیع مختلف برازش داده ‏شد و پس از انتخاب بهترین تابع توزیع برای هر ایستگاه، شدت خشکسالی با تداوم‏های دو، چهار، شش و هشت ماهه در دورۀ بازگشت‏های دو، سه، پنج، 10، 25 و 50 سال محاسبه شده و جد‌ول‌های مرتبط با شدت، تداوم و دورۀ بازگشت خشکسالی تهیه شد. همچنین، با استفاده از برنامۀ Spss 22 ‌به آنالیز خوشه‏ای و گروه‏بندی ایستگاه‏های مطالعه‌شده اقدام شد. در پایان، با روش درون‏یابی IDW و با استفاده از نرم‏افزار ArcGIS 9.3، ‌پهنه‏بندی خشکسالی محدودۀ مطالعه‌شده برای دو دورۀ 10 ساله به‏صورت جداگانه انجام گرفت. نتایج نشان داد شاخص SPI به عنوان بهترین شاخص توانسته است تفسیر مناسبی از محاسبات خشکسالی را در منطقه داشته باشد. به طور کلی، نتایج بیان می‌کند که طی دهۀ اخیر شدت خشکسالی نسبت به دهۀ قبل از آن روند افزایشی داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Using Run Theory to Analysis of Drought severity – Duration – Return Period (Case Study: Fars Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amir Hossein Parsamehr 1
  • Mohammad Hossein Mobin 2
  • Zahra Khosravani 3
1 Department of Range and Watershed Management, faculty of agriculture and Natural Resources, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran.
2 Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
3 Ph. D Student of De-desertification, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Drought is a consequence of fluctuations in climate conditions that their effect on human societies is more than another phenomenon. For drought investigation, monthly data of precipitation in 9 synoptic stations of Fars province during twenty years period (1995-2014) was used. After calculation of drought severity using run theory, suitable index among DI, PNPI, SIAP, RAI, SPI and BMDI indices was selected. Then time series of drought severity fitted on different distributions and after selection of best distribution for each station, drought severity with duration 2, 4, 6 and 8 months in return periods of 2, 3, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years calculated and related table was prepared. Also using cluster analysis studied stations divided into different groups. At least, drought severity zoning map in 2 decades plotted in GIS. Results showed that Standard precipitation index (SPI) as the best index could be a proper interpret of drought computing. Generally, in study area drought severity increase in the recent decade.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Run Theory
  • Standard Precipitation Index
  • Clustering
  • zoning
  • Fars province
[1]. Tsakiris G, Nalbantis I, Vangelis H, Verbeiren B, Huysmans M, Tychon B, et al. A system-based Paradigm of drought analysis for operational management. Water Resources Management. 2013; 27: 5281-5297.

[2]. Pirmoradian N, Shamsnia SA, Boustani F, Shahrokhnia MA. Evaluation of drought return period using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Fars province. Agroecology Journal. 2009; 13: 7-21. [Persian].

[3]. Rezaei P, Roshni M, Amirabadizadeh SM. The Study of Relationship between Intensity, Duration, Frequency and Involvement Level with Drought in the Northwest of Iran. Geography and environmental hazards. 2014; 10: 91-110. [Persian].

[4]. Koushki R, Rahimi M, Amiri M, Mohammadi M, Dastorani J, Investigation of relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought in karkheh watershed. Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology. 2017; 4(3):687-698. [Persian].

[5]. Fattahi E, Sedaghatkerdar A. Analysis of Intensity duration and frequency of drought Geography and development. 2005; 5: 77-99.[Persian].

[6]. Yildis O, Assessing temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts in the Hirfanli dam basin, Turkey. Academic Journal of Scientific Research and Essay. 2009; 4(4): 249-255.

[7]. Hosseinizadeh A, SeyedKaboli H, Zareie H, Akhondali A, Farjad B. Impact of climate change on the severity, duration, and frequency of drought in a semi-arid agricultural basin. Geoenvironmental Disasters. 2015; 23(2): 1-9. [Persian].

 

[8]. Maleki AR, Torkamani J. Drought management for optimization of water resources. Journal of agricultural economic research. 2015; 25: 65-89.

[9]. Halwatura D, Lechner A, Arnold S. Drought severity–duration–frequency curves: A foundation for risk assessment and planning tool for ecosystem establishment in post-mining landscapes. Hydrology and Earth System Science.2015; 19: 069–1091.

[10].            Yevejevich V. An objective approach to definition and investigation of continental hydrologic droughts. Hydrology paper 23. Colorado University Press. Fort Collins. 1967.

[11].            Khalili A, Bazr Afshan J. Evaluation of return period and drought duration risk using annual secular precipitation data in ancient stations of Iran. 2th conference on water resources management. Isfahan University of Technology. Science and natural resources. 2007; 15: 176-182. [Persian].

[12].            Moye LA, Kapadia AS, Cech IM, Hardy RJ. Theory of run with applications to drought prediction. Journal of Hydrology. 1988; 103:127-137.

[13].            Bihamta MR, Zare Chahouki MA. Principle of statistics for the natural resources science. 3th edition. Tehran university press. Tehran. 2011. [Persian].

[14].            Vafakhah M, Rajabi M. Efficiency of meteorological drought indices for monitoring and assessment of drought in Bakhtegan, Tashk, and Maharlou lakes watershed. Desert (Biaban). 2005; 10(2): 369-382. [Persian].

[15].            Piri H, Rahdari V, Maleki S. Study and compare performance of four meteorological drought indices in the risk management droughts
in Sistan and Baluchestan province. Iranian Journal of irrigation and water Engineering. 2013; 11: 96-114. [Persian].

[16].            Mckee TS, Doesken N, Kleist J. 1995. Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. 9th conference on Applied Climatology. Dallas.15-20 Jan. 1995; 233-236.

[17].            Mahdavi M. Applied Hydrology. 5th edition. Tehran university press. Tehran. 2012. [Persian].

[18].            Alizadeh A, Ansari H, Ershadi S, Ashgar Tousi Sh. Drought predictability in the province of Sistn and Balouchestan. Semi – annual journal of geography and regional development. 2009; 11:1-7.[Persian].

[19].            Montazeri M, Gayoor H. Comparative Analysis of Precipitation and Drought Trends in Caspian’s Basin. Geography and Development. 2010; 16:72-91. [Persian].

[20].            Mosaedi A, Khalilizade M, Mohammadi A. Drought monitoring in Golestan Province Journal of agriculture and natural resources. 2008; 15:176-182. [Persian].

[21].            Faryabi M, Mozaffarizade J, Hydrogeological drought management index (HDMI) as a tool for groundwater resource management under drought conditions, Case study: Dayyer-Abdan district, Boushehr province. Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology. 2017; 4(3):737-748. [Persian].

[22].            Nohegar A, Mahmoodabadi S. Assessment of some indicators of drought-regional and appointment of the suitable indicator in the Kahorestan zone. Geography (Regional Planning). 2012; 2(2):89-98. [Persian].

[23].            W. M. O. Guide to climatologically practice, Geneva, 1983.