Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Gamasiab river basin

Document Type : Research Article


1 PhD Candidate in Watershed managment

2 Geography Department,Hormozgan University,Bandar Abbass,Islamic Republic of Iran

3 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology,College of Agriculture & Natural Resources,University of Tehran, Karaj

4 Department of Watershed management and range management, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Hormozgan University, Hormozgan


One of the natural characteristics of the Gamasiab River is the probability of occurrence of the flood and its hazard. Hydrological studies under climate change conditions are required to organize and manage it. Because of the necessity of using CMIP5 series models in new researches due to their high accuracy and lack of research using these models in our country, in the present study, four models of CMPI5 series and two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were used for the near future (2049-2020 AD) and the far future (2070-2099 AD). The results show the annual rainfall in five stations would vary from 52.8 to -31.6 percent according to the scenarios and different time periods. The average minimum and maximum monthly temperature at Kermanshah station increases to 2.75 ° C and 2.15 C°, and at Hamadan station, increases to 3.43 C° and 4.26 C°, respectively according to different scenarios. The SWAT model was used to simulate the hydrologic regime. The results while confirming the effectiveness of the SWAT model for simulating of river discharge, showed that changes in runoff rate using the output of the CSIRO-k3.6.0 model under different scenarios would indicate a change from 17.8 to -42.3 percent


Main Subjects

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Volume 5, Issue 3
October 2018
Pages 777-789
  • Receive Date: 02 October 2017
  • Revise Date: 09 November 2017
  • Accept Date: 01 February 2018
  • First Publish Date: 23 September 2018