Investigation of Climate Change Occurrence and its Impact on Wheat Growth (Case Study: Fars Province)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of Seed Science and Technology, University of Tehran.Iran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran

3 Master of Seed Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Iran

4 Master of Nature Engineering, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict climate change and investigate the effect of climate change on Growth Day-days and total days of wheat growth in the Fars province. For this purpose, the climate data of three synoptic stations of Shiraz, Lar and Abadeh in Fars province and the data of two models HADGEM2-ES and EC-EART were scaled under RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios. LARS-WG statistical model was used for downscaling. The results showed that the LARS-WG model has appropriate accuracy in downscaling of Fars province climate, minimum and maximum temperature parameters. The minimum and maximum temperatures of all three stations of Shiraz, Lar and Abadeh increased under both RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios. The increase in the minimum temperature of the base period (1980–2015) in the Fars province relative to the period (2021–2040) for the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios are 1.43 and 1.65 ° C, respectively. The maximum increase in base temperature over this period for the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios are 1.51 and 1.66 ° C, respectively. The amount of changes in the rainfall of the baseline period increased by 2.93% and 1.95% for the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios, respectively. Then, using ADP equation, the number of day-index under two temperature thresholds of 4 and 25 ° C for the basic and future time interval (2021-2040) was calculated and the results showed the degree of days of wheat growth period (GDD) and total days’ number. The growth period (DAP) had an increasing and decreasing trend compared to the baseline period.

Keywords


[1]. Aghashahi, M Ardestani, M Nik Nik, MH, Tahmasebi, B,"Introduction and Comparison of LARS-WG and SDSM Models for Micro-Scaling of Environmental Parameters in Climate Change Studies". 6th National Conference on Environmental Engineering, Tehran, University of Tehran, Faculty of Environment.2012. [Persian].
[2]. Asakereh, H. Akbarzadeh, Y, Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Tabriz Synoptic Station during the Period (2010-2001) Using Statistical Exponential Microscopy (SDSM) and CanESM2 Model Output, Geography and Environmental Hazards, No,2017. 21. [Persian].
[3]. IPCC (INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2001, 881.
[4]. XU, Chong-yu. From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modelling approaches. Progress in physical Geography, 1999, 23.2: 229-249.
[5]. Change, C. Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing countries. Climate Change Secretariat,2007, (UNFCCC).
[6]. Ullah, A. Bakht, J. Shafi, M. Shah, W. A., & Islam, Z. (2002). Effect of various irrigations levels on different chickpea varieties. Asian Journal of Plant Sciences, 1(4), 355-357.
[7]. MEZA, Francisco J.; SILVA, Daniel; VIGIL, Hernán. Climate change impacts on irrigated maize in Mediterranean climates: evaluation of double cropping as an emerging adaptation alternative. Agricultural systems, 2008, 98.1: 21-30.‏
[8]. ROUNSEVELL, M. D. A., et al. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use: II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2005, 107.2-3: 117-135.‏
[9]. Kozaki, A. Nasiri Mahallati, M.Sc. The effect of climate change with increasing CO2 concentration on wheat yield in Iran and evaluation of adaptation strategies. Iranian Agricultural Research.2008: 139-153. [Persian].
[10].            MILLER, Perry; LANIER, Will; BRANDT, Stu. Using growing degree days to predict plant stages. Ag/Extension Communications Coordinator, Communications Services, Montana State University-Bozeman, Bozeman, MO, 2001, 1-2.
[11].            CESARACCIO, Carla, et al. An improved model for determining degree-day values from daily temperature data. International journal of biometeorology, 2001, 45.4: 161-169.
[12].            CHIOTTI, Quentin P.; JOHNSTON, Tom. Extending the boundaries of climate change research: a discussion on agriculture. Journal of Rural Studies, 1995, 11.3: 335-350.
[13].            Shreekant, G., Partha, S., & Saumya, V. Impact of Climate Change on Foodgrain Yields in India (No. 2015-9). Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. (2016).
[14].            SOLEYMANI NM, Parsinejad M, Araghinejad S, MASSAH BA. STUDY ON CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON NET IRRIGATION REQUIREMENT AND YIELD FOR RAINFED WHEAT (CASE STUDY: BEHSHAHR).
[15].            Valizadeh J, Ziaei SM, Mazloumzadeh SM. Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study). Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences. 2014 Jun 1;13(2):107-15.. [Persian].
[16].            PARAJULI, P. B., et al. Assessing the impacts of climate change and tillage practices on stream flow, crop and sediment yields from the Mississippi River Basin. Agricultural Water Management, 2016, 168: 112-124.‏
[17].            FUNES, Inmaculada, et al. Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin. Agricultural Water Management, 2016, 164: 19-27.
[18].            GUO, Liang, et al. Responses of spring phenology in temperate zone trees to climate warming: a case study of apricot flowering in China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015, 201: 1-7.‏
 
[19].            Hajjarpour, A. Soltani, A. Zinli, A. Seyyedi, F., (1). "Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Chickpea Production in Kermanshah Rain and Water Conditions". Plant Production Research, 1392, (20). [Persian].
[20].            Mohammadi, Ayazdan panah, h. Mohammadi, F. "Investigation of Climate Change Occurrence and its Impact on Sowing Time and Growth Period of Durum Wheat (Case Study) Case Study of Sararood Station of Kermanshah", Natural Geography Research, 2014, 1: 1-3. [Persian].
[21].            Shahkoui, A. Clear, etc., "Time-varying day-time variations of soybean plant based on climate change in the coming decades case study of Gorgan city", Journal of Space Geography, Golestan University of Science and Technology,2013, 1: 1-3. [Persian].
[22].            Biname, 2011, Agricultural Statistics First Volume of Crops, 2008-2010, Office of Statistics and Information Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, First Edition.2011. [Persian].
[23].            WILBY, Robert L.; WIGLEY, T. M. L. Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progress in physical geography, 1997, 21.4: 530-548.‏
[24].            Salahi, B, Fatemi Nia, F. S., & Hosseini, S. M. Assessment of future climate change in Isfahan province using BCM2 & HADCM3 models by lars-wg downscaling model. Arid Regions Geographic Studies,2015, 4(16).
[25].            Alavi D, M. Believe me, m. Falah Qhalheri, etc. "The Impact of Climate Change on Pomegranate Areas". Master's Degree in Natural Geography. Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences. Hakim Sabzevari University.2016. [Persian].
[26].            Rahimpour, P. Salahi, b. Behrouz, S. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Flowering Stage of Apple, Grape and Peach Trees in Meshginshahr Area." Master of Science in Natural Geography. Faculty of Literature and Social Sciences. University of Mohaghegh Ardabili.2017. [Persian].
[27].            Zolfaghari, H. Masoumpour Samakoush, vol. Chahwari, Sh.Estimation of degree-days growth in northwestern Iran based on climate change models. Journal of Applied Geosciences Research,2018. 18 (49): 240-221. [Persian].
[28].            Soleymani N, M., Parsinejad, M., Araghinejad, Sh., & Massah, B. A..Study on climate change effect on net irrigation requirement and yield for rainfed wheat (case study: behshahr) (2012).
 
 
Volume 7, Issue 1
April 2020
Pages 1-15
  • Receive Date: 11 August 2019
  • Revise Date: 09 February 2020
  • Accept Date: 09 February 2020
  • First Publish Date: 20 March 2020