Risk Assessment of Water Resources Development Plans Using the Fault Tree Analysis Method (Case Study: District 4 of Mokran and Bandar Abbas)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 MSc Student of Water Resources Engineering, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran

3 Ph.D of Water Resources Management, Iran Water and Power Resources Development Co., Tehran

Abstract

Nowadays, the improper distribution of rainfall and the decline in precipitation, in addition to the population growth, resulted in water consumption and demand have made society dependent on the use of water resources development plans. Also, one of the long-term goals of the country’s water strategy is to strike a balance between the amount of water demand and existing water resources, bearing in mind the social, economic, and environmental considerations. Therefore, risk analysis of water resource development plans based on sustainable development indicators is necessary. In the present study, for the first time, the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique was employed in order to assess the risk of water resource development projects under the framework of sustainable development. After determining the top event, factors leading to its occurrence, including the failure of social, economic, environmental and water resources indices were identified. The proposed model was presented as a case study for water resources development plans of the “district 4 of Mokran to Bandar Abbas City”. After calculating the area performance in Vensim, the probability of failure of the Sustainable Development Indicators was estimated based on Vensim output and used as input to the proposed Fault Tree. The results showed that the failure probability of the best, worst and existing condition scenarios were 38%, 90% and 50%, respectively. Finally, due to the calculated high risk, the base events were ranked based on their contribution on the top event occurrence. The ranking results showed that the most effective base events in the best scenario are social failure and economic failure and in the worst case scenario are economic and social failures, respectively.

Keywords

References

[1].WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development). Our Common Future. Oxford:Oxford University Press;1987.
[2].Sadiq R, Kleiner Y, Rajani B. Water quality failures in distribution networks—risk analysis using fuzzy logic and evidential reasoning. Risk analysis. 2007; 27(5):1381-1394.
[3].Sadiq R, Saint-Martin E, Kleiner Y. Predicting risk of water quality failures in distribution networks under uncertainties using fault-tree analysis. Urban Water Journal. 2008; 5(4):287-304.
 
[4].Lindhe A, Rosén L, Norberg T, Bergstedt O. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems. Water research. 2009; 43(6):1641-1653.
[5].Taheriyoun M, Moradinejad S. Reliability analysis of a wastewater treatment plant using fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Environmental monitoring and assessment. 2015; 187(1):4186.
[6].Stein D, Achari G, Langford CH, Dore MH, Haider H, Zhang K, Sadiq R. Performance management of small water treatment plant operations: a decision support system. Water and Environment Journal. 2017; 31(3):330-44.
[7].Tabesh M, Roozbahani A, Hadigol F. Risk Assessment of Water Treatment Plants Using Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (Case Study: Jalaliyeh Water Treatment Plant). Journal of Water and Wastewater. 2018; 29(4):132-144. [Persian]
[8].Babaei M, Roozbahani A, Shahdany SMH. Risk Assessment of Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method. Water Resources Management. 2018; 32(12):4079-4101.
[9].Ghachlou M, Roozbahani A, Banihabib ME. Comprehensive risk assessment of river basins using Fault Tree Analysis. Journal of hydrology. 2019;123974.
[10].Raju KS, Duckstein L, Arondel C. Multicriterion analysis for sustainable water resources planning: a case study in Spain. Water Resources Management. 2000;14(6):435-456.
[11].Yilmaz B, Harmancioglu N. Multi-criteria decision making for water resource management: a case study of the Gediz River Basin, Turkey. Water SA. 2010; 36(5).
[12].Abadi L, Sadeghi Kh, Shamsai A, Goharnejad H. An analysis of the sustainability of basin water resources using Vensim model. KSCE Journal of civil engineering. 2015;19(6):1941-1949.
[13].Banihabib ME, Shabestari M.H. Decision Models for the Ranking of Agricultural Water Demand Management Strategies in an Arid Region. Irrigation and Drainage. 2017; 66(5):773-783.
[14].Kefayati M, Saghafian B, Ahmadi A, Babazadeh H. Empirical evaluation of river basin sustainability affected by inter- basin
water transfer using composte indicators. Water and Environment Journal. 2018(1):104-111.
[15].Liang GS, Wang MJJ. A fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method for facility site selection. 1991; 29(11):2313-2330.
[16].Zhang GD, Lu YX. Analysis and design of reliability and maintenance of system." Beijing: Beijing Aeronautics and Astronautics University Press, Beijing. 1990; 120-125.
[17].Pan ZJ, Tai YC. Variance importance of system components by Monte Carlo. IEEE Transactions on Reliability.1988; 37(4):421-423.
[18]. Rayab Consulting Engineering Company. Report of “Design landscape of water transfer from the Jagin dam to Makran coast”.2010. [Persian]
[19]. Lar Consulting Engineering Company. Report of “Complementary studies of the second phase of the Gabrick Dam”. 2017. [Persian]
[20].Regional Water Company of Hormozgan. Report of “Water section Development document of Hormozgan Province”. 2010. [Persian]
[21].Rajaian MM. Dynamic Systems Simulation with Vensim Software. 2nd ed. Mashhad:farayaz; 2013. [Persian]
[22].Sterman JD. Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Boston. New York:McGraw-Hill. 2000.
[23].Hafezparast M, Araghinezhad SH, SharifAzari S. Sustainability Criteria in Assessment of Integrated Water Resources Management in the Aras Basin Based on DPSIR Approach. Journal of water and soil conservation. 2015; 22(2). [Persian]
[24]. Wu J. Land use changes: Economic, social, and environmental impacts. Choices. 2008; 23 (4): 6-10.
[25].Iternational Organization for Standardization. 2018. Access site; www.iso.org/sdgs/
[26].Nezamabadi AA, Rostami MNk, Moradi S. Red Tide Effects on the Function of Desalination Plant in Kish Island. Specialized Conference on Saltwater Desalination, Saltwater and Wastewater Treatment.Tehran. University of Water and Power Technolog. 2012. [Persian]
Iranian journal of Ecohydrology
Volume 7, Issue 1
April 2020
Pages 29-45

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 05 August 2019
  • Revise Date: 17 February 2020
  • Accept Date: 17 February 2020

Share

How to cite

Statistics