Risk Assessment of Water Resources Development Plans Using the Fault Tree Analysis Method (Case Study: District 4 of Mokran and Bandar Abbas)

Document Type : Research Article


1 MSc Student of Water Resources Engineering, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran

3 Ph.D of Water Resources Management, Iran Water and Power Resources Development Co., Tehran


Nowadays, the improper distribution of rainfall and the decline in precipitation, in addition to the population growth, resulted in water consumption and demand have made society dependent on the use of water resources development plans. Also, one of the long-term goals of the country’s water strategy is to strike a balance between the amount of water demand and existing water resources, bearing in mind the social, economic, and environmental considerations. Therefore, risk analysis of water resource development plans based on sustainable development indicators is necessary. In the present study, for the first time, the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique was employed in order to assess the risk of water resource development projects under the framework of sustainable development. After determining the top event, factors leading to its occurrence, including the failure of social, economic, environmental and water resources indices were identified. The proposed model was presented as a case study for water resources development plans of the “district 4 of Mokran to Bandar Abbas City”. After calculating the area performance in Vensim, the probability of failure of the Sustainable Development Indicators was estimated based on Vensim output and used as input to the proposed Fault Tree. The results showed that the failure probability of the best, worst and existing condition scenarios were 38%, 90% and 50%, respectively. Finally, due to the calculated high risk, the base events were ranked based on their contribution on the top event occurrence. The ranking results showed that the most effective base events in the best scenario are social failure and economic failure and in the worst case scenario are economic and social failures, respectively.


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Volume 7, Issue 1
April 2020
Pages 29-45
  • Receive Date: 05 August 2019
  • Revise Date: 17 February 2020
  • Accept Date: 17 February 2020
  • First Publish Date: 20 March 2020