Investigation of Uncertainties in a Rainfall-Runoff Conceptual Model for Simulation of Basin using Bayesian Method

Document Type : Research Article


1 Ph.D Candidate, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran

2 Associate Professor, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran


Taleghan River is among the most important rivers in Iran due to its flow to Taleghan Dam, supplying drinking water to this region in addition to being one of the sources for northwestern part of the city of Tehran. Long-term river discharge data are needed to design hydroelectric power stations and manage water resources. With the existing monitoring stations being scattered and not providing sufficient hydrological data for the basin, we employ rainfall-runoff models which are popular tools for expanding hydrological data over time and space. In this paper, the feasibility of applying a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called HYMOD to a part of Taleghan River Basin is investigated. The generalized probability estimation method was used for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The results show that the observed discharges are satisfactorily consistent with the observations, indicating that the hydrological model is working well and applying HYMOD to estimate long time series of river discharge in the study area is turning reasonable results.


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Volume 7, Issue 1
April 2020
Pages 223-236
  • Receive Date: 07 October 2019
  • Revise Date: 11 February 2020
  • Accept Date: 11 February 2020
  • First Publish Date: 20 March 2020