Prediction and Analysis of Flood Zones under Climate Change Conditions based on CanESM2 Model’s Scenarios

Document Type : Research Article


1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Watershed Managment Sciences and Engineering , Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran

3 Professor, The Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information Systems (CAMGIS), Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, New South Wales 2007, Australia Professor, Department

4 Assistant Professor, Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran


North of Iran is one of the flood-prone areas as a result of the humid climate and the large amount of maximum daily rainfall. This study aims to predict flood zone in climate change conditions based on the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) scenarios in the Talar watershed (Zirab city). To investigate the effect of climate change, six synoptic stations were used.  Among the general circulation models (GCM), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios were applied for statistical downscaling of the maximum daily rainfall. To hydrologic and hydraulic simulation of flood were used from Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC- HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic River System (HEC- RAS) models in the recent decades and the future. The results indicated that maximum daily rainfall will increase in the watershed. The results also showed that the increase in maximum daily rainfall in humid climate (the North) is more than dry climate (the South). In general, maximum daily rainfall will increase the minimum and maximum 8 and 33 mm, respectively in the watershed. The simulation results in terms of flood hydrograph indicate that flood increase in the all periods. The RCP 4.5 scenario will produce at minimum and maximum flood discharge in 2020-2040 (374 m3/s) and 2020-2100 (1209 m3/s), respectively. Flood zoning map showed that floodplain area is the base period in the river basin, but climate change will increase the flood zone in this region.  Besides, the results showed that at least 0.18 percent and at most 8.7 percent of the total Zirab city will effect on flood under climate change conditions.


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Volume 7, Issue 2
July 2020
Pages 551-562
  • Receive Date: 05 March 2020
  • Revise Date: 19 April 2020
  • Accept Date: 19 April 2020
  • First Publish Date: 21 June 2020