Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Fluctuations Using RCP Scenarios

Document Type : Research Article


1 Assistant professor, Department of Drought and climate change, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), AREEO, Tehran, Iran

2 Msc. Graduated, Water resources engineering, Water engineering Department, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz Branch, Shiraz, Iran


Nowadays the negative effects of climate change along with the water crisis are the most important global challenges. This is an advanced method to study the impact of climate change on groundwater level fluctuations. In this study the conceptual Modflow model was used to simulate groundwater levels and to analysis groundwater balance of Hashtgerd plain. Hydraulic conductivity in steady state and specific yield in unsteady state were calibrated. In order to estimate rainfall and temperature in the area, the CMIP5 integrated climate model under RCP2.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used. The data for the period of 2015-2040 by LARS-WG model was downscaled. The output data in IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was entered, then the run-off under climate change was determined. The penetration rate of run-off with parameters affected by climate change entered and modeling was performed. Quantitative model showed a decrease of 73 cm in water table in the current status of the Hashtgerd aquifer. According to the witnesses, the present status would be worsened in future and will change the situation of aquifer from crisis mode to supercritical state. The predicted results show that the RCP8.5 scenarios has more critical situation than RCP2.5 scenarios and would be even worse in the region. It is predicted that the decline in groundwater level in 2040 (even if assuming a constant harvest rate) would be lowered up to of 18 meters from the comparing to the present status.


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Volume 7, Issue 3
October 2020
Pages 801-814
  • Receive Date: 10 April 2020
  • Revise Date: 17 July 2020
  • Accept Date: 17 July 2020
  • First Publish Date: 22 September 2020
  • Publish Date: 22 September 2020