Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Fluctuations Using RCP Scenarios

Document Type : Research Article


1 Assistant professor, Department of Drought and climate change, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), AREEO, Tehran, Iran

2 Msc. Graduated, Water resources engineering, Water engineering Department, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz Branch, Shiraz, Iran


Nowadays the negative effects of climate change along with the water crisis are the most important global challenges. This is an advanced method to study the impact of climate change on groundwater level fluctuations. In this study the conceptual Modflow model was used to simulate groundwater levels and to analysis groundwater balance of Hashtgerd plain. Hydraulic conductivity in steady state and specific yield in unsteady state were calibrated. In order to estimate rainfall and temperature in the area, the CMIP5 integrated climate model under RCP2.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used. The data for the period of 2015-2040 by LARS-WG model was downscaled. The output data in IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was entered, then the run-off under climate change was determined. The penetration rate of run-off with parameters affected by climate change entered and modeling was performed. Quantitative model showed a decrease of 73 cm in water table in the current status of the Hashtgerd aquifer. According to the witnesses, the present status would be worsened in future and will change the situation of aquifer from crisis mode to supercritical state. The predicted results show that the RCP8.5 scenarios has more critical situation than RCP2.5 scenarios and would be even worse in the region. It is predicted that the decline in groundwater level in 2040 (even if assuming a constant harvest rate) would be lowered up to of 18 meters from the comparing to the present status.


[1]. Goodarzi, M., Hosseini, A., Mesgari, E., Choobeh, S. Hydrologic Models, AzarKelk publishing center, Zanjan, Iran; 2016: (Persian)
[2]. Goodarzi, M., Hosseini, A., Mesgari, E. Climate Models, AzarKelk publishing center, Zanjan, Iran; 2017: (Persian)
[3]. Goodarzi, M., Shirmohammadi, B., Nejati Jahromi, Z., Modelling with GMS, Salam Sepahan and Miras Kohan, Publishing center, Isfahan, Iran; 2018: (Persian)
[4]. IPCC-TGCIA. Guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment report 5, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, task group on scenarios for climate impact assessment; 2014.
[5]. Kuhestani, N.climate variability impacts on underground water table: a case study Narmab Basin, Golestan, national conference on crisis management, Marvdasht Islamic Azad university; 2009. (Persian)
[6]. Karamouz M., RezapourTabari M., Kerachian R., and Zahraie B. Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater Resources with Emphasis on Water Quality. Water and Environmental Resources Congress, ASCE, Alaska; 2005.
[7]. Dye, P. J. and Croke, B. F. W. Evaluation of stream flow predictions by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model in two South African catchments. Environmental Modelling & Software; 2003: 18, 705-712.
[8]. Dibike, B. Y., Coulibaly, P. Hydrological impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. Journal of hydrology; 2005: 307 145-163.
[9]. Poormohammadi, S., Dastorani, M. T., Jafari, H., Rahimian, M. H., Goodarzi, M., Mesmarian, Z., Baqeri, F. Investigation of groundwater balance in Tuiserkan plain of Hamedan using MODFLOW, Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology; 2016: 2(4), 371. (Persian)
[10]. Goodarzi, M., Salahi, B., Hoseini, A.). Study on Effects of Climate Changes on Surface Runoff Changes Case Study: Urmia Lake Basin, Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology; 2015: 2(2), 175 P. (Persian)
[11]. Bakhtiare Enayat, B., Malekian, A., Salajegheh, A. Time lag Analysis between climate Time and Lag Correlation Analysis between Climate Drought and Hydrological Drought in Hashtgerd Plain, Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research; 2016: 46(4), 609-616. (Persian)
[12]. Diaz-Nieto, J. and Wilby, R. L. A comparison of statistical and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the river Thames, United Kingdom. Journal of climate change; 2005: 69, 245-268.
[13]. Mostafaei, A., Moradniya, V., Goodarzi, M. Evaluation the Role of Sarcahan-Floodwater Spreading in the Artificial Groundwater Recharge, Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology; 2017: 4(3), 749-761. (Persian)
[14]. Zarezade Mehrizi, Sh., Khoorani, A., Bazrafshan, J., Bazrafshan, O., (). Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Gamasiab river basin, Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology; 2018: 5(3), 777-789. (Persian)
 [15]. Arnell, N. W. And Gosling, S. N. The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change; 2013: 10584-014-1084-5
[16]. Kamal, A., Masah Bavani, A., Goodarzi, M. Assessing Hydrologic impacts of climate change in Qarasu, 2nd national conference on Dam, Zanjan Islamic Azad University; 2009. (Persian)
[17]. Hamzeh , S., Bagherpour, Z., Delghandi M., Kardan Moghaddam, H. Risk assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater level (Case study: Gotvand Aghili aquifer), Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology;2018:5(1), 111-122. (Persian)
[18]. Jalali, M.N., Sarai Tabrizi, M., Babazadeh, H. Investigating the effect of climate change on water flow and water balance of Latyan dam using SWAT model, Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology; 2020:7(1), 17-28. (Persian)
[19]. Jamalizadeh, M., Bazrafshan, O., Mahdavi, R., Azareh, A., Rafiee Sardoei, E. Forecasting of Groundwater Fluctuations Using Stochastic Models and GMS (Case Study: Rafsanjan Plain), Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology; 2020: 7(1), 97-109. (Persian)
[20]. Babolhakami A., Gholami sefidkouhi, M. A., Emadi, A. Assessing the impact of climate change on drought and forecasting Neka river basin runoff in future periods, Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology; 2020 :7(2), 291-302. (Persian)
[21]. Kidmose, J. C. Refsgaard, L. Troldborg, L. P. Seaby, and M. M. Escrivà. Climate change impact on groundwater levels: ensemble modelling of extreme values. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.; 201317:1619-1634,
[22]. Kauo-Chin, H., Chug-Ho, W., Kuan-Chin, C., Chien-Tai, C., Kai-Wei, M. Climate-induced hydrological impacts on the groundwater system the Pingtung plain, Taiwan; 2010.
[23]. Kay, A. L., Jones, R. G. and Reynard, N. S. RCM Rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. II. Climate change results. Journal of Hydrology; 2006: 318 pp 163-172.
[24]. Azaranfar, A., Abrishamchi, A., Tajrishi, M. Assessing climate change impacts on rain and temperature in Zayandehrud Basin using GCMs, 2nd national conference on Iranian water resources; 2006 :1-8. (Persian)
[25]. Lee, E., Seong, C., Kim, H., Park, S. and Kang, M. Predicting the impacts of climate change on non-point source pollutant loads from agricultural small watershed using artificial neural network. J Environ Sca (China); 2010 22: 840-845.
[26]. Meshkati, A. H., Kordjazi, M., Babaeian, I. Evaluation of LARS-WG model in simulation of some observed meteorological parameters in Golestan province (1993-2007), Journal of Applied Researches in Geographical Sciences; 2011: 19, 81. (Persian)
[27]. Goodarzi, M. Assessing climate change
impacts on surface water resources: a case study of upper Karkha River Basin, A PhD Dissertation of the university of Tabriz; 2011: 210 pp. (Persian)
[28]. Noruzi, E., Yarahmadi, Y., Jahangir, M. H. Investigation of Climate Parameters’ Changes in Borujerd City in Next 20 Years through the Using HADCM3 Model, Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology; 2018 5(4), 1345-1353. (Persian)
[29]. P. Rasmussen, T. O. Sonnenborg, G. Goncear, and K. Hinsby. Assessing impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and drainage canals on saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifer.Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.; 2013: 17, 421-443.
[30]. Esmaili, M. Assessing climate variability impacts on underground water resources of Daskan basin, MS thesis, university of Yazd; 2012: 140 pp. (Persian)
[31]. Gosling, S. N. and Arnell, N. W. A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Climatic Change; 2013: 10584-013-0853x.
 [32]. Raje, D., and P.P. Mujumdar. A conditional random field based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multi-site daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin. Water Resources Research; 2009: 45.
[33]. Rasmussen,P. Sonnenborg, T. O. Goncear, G. Hinsby, K.. Assessing impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and drainage canals on saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifer hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.; 2013: 17, 421-443.
[34]. Semenov, M. A. Developing of high-resolution UKCUP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; 2007: 144 pp 127-138.
[35]. Setegn, S.G., D. Rayner, A.M. Melesse, B. Dargahi, and R. Srinivasan. Impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia. Water Resources Research; 2011: 47.
[36]. Porhemat, J. simulation of underground water flow in Ravansar-Sanjabi plain using GMS, final research report, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI); 2016. (Persian)
Volume 7, Issue 3
October 2020
Pages 801-814
  • Receive Date: 10 April 2020
  • Revise Date: 17 July 2020
  • Accept Date: 17 July 2020
  • First Publish Date: 22 September 2020