Analysis of Groundwater Uncertainty in Climate Change (Case study: Hashtgerd Plain)

Document Type : Research Article


1 Civil Engineering Department, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran


The study of the effect of climate change on groundwater resources using climate change scenarios fifth report under 5 models HadGem2Es, Micro5, MPI-Esm-MR, EC-ERATH and GFDL-CM3 simulated temperature and precipitation was carried out. Results derived from the results of climate scenarios in the groundwater flow model MODFLOW actions and for the near future time period (2020-2040), the intermediate future (2060 -2040) far future (2080-2060) was predicted groundwater level. Simulation of groundwater flow in the aquifer indicates that the annual loss of 73 cm water level underground aquifer from the situation becomes critical to critical conditions for operation. As this trend continues in the years to come, the phenomenon of land subsidence should not be out of the question. The results of the current situation shows that the aquifer at the end of the year compared to October 1389 Blue 04-1403 is the beginning of the simulation period, more than 22 meters will drop and more than half of this drop will end in 8 years. Accordingly, based on the results of 5 climatic models and three propagation scenarios, the aquifer status was predicted and according to the obtained hydrograph, the uncertainty of the results of climate models in the aquifer hydrograph was evaluated. The results showed that the release of RCP 8.5 scenario has the highest difference between the minimum and maximum groundwater level.


[1]. Purkey DR, Joyce B, Vicuna S, Hanemann MW, Dale LL, Yates D, Dracup JA. Robust analysis of future climate change impacts on water for agriculture and other sectors: a case study in the Sacramento Valley. Climatic Change. 2008 Mar 1;87(1):109-22.
[2]. Kardan MH, Roozbahani, A. Evaluation of Bayesian networks model in monthly groundwater level prediction (Case study: Birjand aquifer). Journal of water and irrigation management. 2015, 5: 139-151 [Persian]
[3]. Morid S, Bavani AR. Exploration of potential adaptation strategies to climate change in the Zayandeh Rud irrigation system, Iran. Irrigation and Drainage: The journal of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage. 2010 Apr;59(2):226-38.
[4].  IPCC-TGCIA. 2007. General Guidelines on The use of scenario data for climateimate Impact and adaptation assessment, K. Alfsen, E. Barrow, B. Bass, X, 66p.
[5]. Goudarzi M, Salahi B, Hoseini A. Study on Effects of Climate Changes on Surface Runoff Changes Case Study: Urmia Lake Basin. Iranian journal of Ecohydrology, 2015; 2(2): 175-189. doi: 10.22059/ije.2015.56152. [Persian]
[6]. Nistor, MM. Climate change effect on groundwater resources in South East Europe during 21st century. Quaternary International. 2019 Feb 10;504:171-80.
[7]. Ansari s, Massah Bavani A, Roozbahani A. Effects of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge (Case Study: Sefid Dasht Plain). Journal of Water and Soil, 30(2), 416-431. [Persian]
[8]. Mesmarian Z, Massahbavani A, Javadipirbazari S. Climatechange impact on Groundwater budgetof ShahreKord plain in the future periods. Iranian journal of Ecohydrology, 2016; 3(2): 233-242. doi: 10.22059/ije.2016.59664. [Persian]..
[9]. Jallili Kh, Moradi HR, Bozorg hadad O. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Islam Abad Aquifer and Land Allocation Optimization. Desert Ecosystem Engineering Journal; 2016; 5 (11): 117-131. [Persian]
[10].            Abedini M, Ziai A, Shafiei M, Ghahraman B, Ansari H, Meshkini J. Uncertainty Assessment of Groundwater Flow Modeling by Using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation Method (Case Study: Bojnourd Plain). Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage, 2017; 10(6): 755-769. [Persian]
[11].            Hamzeh S, Bagherpour Z, Delghandi M, Kardan Moghaddam H. Risk assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater level (Case study: Gotvand Aghili aquifer). Iranian journal of Ecohydrology, 2018; 5(1): 111-122. doi: 10.22059/ije.2017.235715.645. [Persian]
[12].            Mortazavi Zadeh F, Godarzi M. Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Surface Runoff and Groundwater Using HadGEM2 Climatological Model (Case Study: Hashtgerd). Journal of Water and Soil, 2018 32(2), 433-436. [Persian]
[13].            Khalaj M, Kholghi M, Saghafian B, Bazrafshan J. Investigation about climate change and human activity effects on groundwater level and groundwater quality in semiarid region. Iran Water Resources Research, 2019; 15(2): 278-290. [Persian]
[14].            Moghaddam HK, Moghaddam HK, Kivi Z.R, Bahreinimotlagh M, Alizadeh M.J. Developing comparative mathematic models, BN and ANN for forecasting of groundwater levels. Groundwater for Sustainable Development,2019, 9, p.100237.
Volume 7, Issue 3
October 2020
Pages 815-827
  • Receive Date: 10 April 2020
  • Revise Date: 02 September 2020
  • Accept Date: 02 September 2020
  • First Publish Date: 22 September 2020
  • Publish Date: 22 September 2020