Analysis of Groundwater Uncertainty in Climate Change (Case study: Hashtgerd Plain)

Document Type : Research Article


1 Civil Engineering Department, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran


The study of the effect of climate change on groundwater resources using climate change scenarios fifth report under 5 models HadGem2Es, Micro5, MPI-Esm-MR, EC-ERATH and GFDL-CM3 simulated temperature and precipitation was carried out. Results derived from the results of climate scenarios in the groundwater flow model MODFLOW actions and for the near future time period (2020-2040), the intermediate future (2060 -2040) far future (2080-2060) was predicted groundwater level. Simulation of groundwater flow in the aquifer indicates that the annual loss of 73 cm water level underground aquifer from the situation becomes critical to critical conditions for operation. As this trend continues in the years to come, the phenomenon of land subsidence should not be out of the question. The results of the current situation shows that the aquifer at the end of the year compared to October 1389 Blue 04-1403 is the beginning of the simulation period, more than 22 meters will drop and more than half of this drop will end in 8 years. Accordingly, based on the results of 5 climatic models and three propagation scenarios, the aquifer status was predicted and according to the obtained hydrograph, the uncertainty of the results of climate models in the aquifer hydrograph was evaluated. The results showed that the release of RCP 8.5 scenario has the highest difference between the minimum and maximum groundwater level.


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Volume 7, Issue 3
October 2020
Pages 815-827
  • Receive Date: 10 April 2020
  • Revise Date: 02 September 2020
  • Accept Date: 02 September 2020
  • First Publish Date: 22 September 2020