Modeling of Precipitation – runoff for Predicting Upcoming Flow Streams in Halilroud Basin

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 M.S graduate, Department of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Iran

2 Assisstant Professor of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman

3 Associate Professor of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman

Abstract

Climate change has an impact on discharge in rivers by changing the temperature and precipitation. Iran is much more vulnerable to climate change compared to other countries because of its limited water sources and heterogeneous distribution. The simulation of run-off plays a significant role in some environmental and engineering issues.  The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on run-off in the Halilroud basin in Kerman province using the IHACRES model in two time periods (2020-2050, 2070-2100). In this respect, daily data such as rainfall, temperature from 1995 to 2017 were collected. Then, the outputs of the CanESM2 model, which is a general circulation model (GCM) under two middle emission scenarios (RCP4.5) and pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) using the SDSM model were downscaled. The average temperature in the stations in the present and next periods decreased by 5.6 and 4.6 percent, respectively. The stations' precipitation increased by 42.5 percent and in the next period by 40 percent compared to the observation period (1989 - 2017). The predicted values of temperature and precipitation were entered into the IHACRES model by the SDSM climate model, and then, the discharge changes were expected in two periods of time. The average monthly discharge shows an increase in the warmest months of the year in both stations (Kenaruyeh, Cheshmeh Arous). The results indicated that reducing the temperature and the rise of precipitation in warm months of the year led to increased run-off and the intensity of flood events in the studied area.

Keywords

References

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Iranian journal of Ecohydrology
Volume 8, Issue 1
April 2021
Pages 143-160

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History

  • Receive Date: 25 September 2020
  • Revise Date: 18 February 2021
  • Accept Date: 18 February 2021

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