Effects of climate change on floods volume and peak discharge (Case Study: Qaran Talar sub-catchmaent)

Document Type : Research Article


Shahrood University of Technology


Changes in runoff properties due to climate change are currently one of the main concerns in long term planning of water resources and float protection. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources. Therefore, in this research impacts of climate change on runoff properties of Qaran Talar sub-catchment were evaluated. For this purpose, 22 AOGCM models and two greenhouse gases emission scenarios (RCp4.5 and RCP8.5) are used for the generation of climate change scenarios. Daily precipitation time series under 3 probability levels (0.50, 0.75, and 0.90) were generated for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099), and afterward design precipitation for 2 to 500-year return periods was determined for baseline and future periods. Results showed that in the future periods, in the cold and warm months of the year, we will expect an increase and decrease in rainfall, respectively. Outputs of WMS model indicated that under climate change conditions, the amount of peak discharge and the volume of floods for design rainfall of different return periods will increase by 35 to 110 percent. It was also found that at the probability level of 0.5, the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in both future periods estimate a 30% increase in peak discharge and flood volume. at the probability level of 0.75 and 0.90 during 2021-2050, both emission scenarios indicated the same results, but the amount of peak discharge increase in the period of 2099-2070 under RCP8.5 is higher compared to RCP4.5.


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Volume 9, Issue 1
April 2022
Pages 259-272
  • Receive Date: 23 October 2021
  • Revise Date: 11 March 2022
  • Accept Date: 11 March 2022
  • First Publish Date: 21 March 2022