Assessing Future Climate Change Components from North to South West of Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 1- Postdoctoral Researcher of Irrigation and Drainage, Joint Cooperation Program, Imam Khomeini International University (IKIU) and Wageningen University and Research (WUR)

2 2- Associate Professor, Water Sciences and Engineering Department, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

3 3- Associate Professor, Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, The Netherlands

10.22059/ije.2022.340627.1621

Abstract

Climate change is one of the ongoing challenges. This phenomenon will affect all parts of the world, including Iran. Therefore, understanding and projecting climate change can be a way forward for future planning in different areas. To do this, the present study applied six general circulation models (GCM) to assess climate change in some stations in northwest, west and southwest of Iran under three different scenarios: RCP2.6 (optimistic), RCP4.5 (middle) and RCP8.5 (Pessimistic) by using LARS-WG during 2021-2100. Based on the results, the highest values were observed under the RCP8.5 scenario and in NorESM1.1, CanESM2 and HadGEM2-ES GCMs for sunhours, and minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively. Compared to the base period: The highest increase in minimum and maximum temperatures have been observed in Aligudarz station during 2081-2100 with 69% and 25%, respectively. Daily average rainfall and Sun hours might enhance 35.4% in Ahvaz during the years 2061-2080 and 9.8% in Parsabad during the years 2041-2060. On the other hand, the lowest daily values compared to the base period were observed in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios in Ahvaz, with a 0.23% decrease in minimum temperature and a 2.93% increase in maximum temperature. Also, compared to the base periods, the daily average precipitation in Parsabad has decreased by 8.63 % and sun hours in Mianeh have reduced to 14.54%. In general, the southwest may experience more precipitation compared to the northwest in the future.

Keywords


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Volume 9, Issue 2
July 2022
Pages 373-386
  • Receive Date: 27 February 2022
  • Revise Date: 19 April 2022
  • Accept Date: 01 May 2022
  • First Publish Date: 22 June 2022