Document Type : Research Article
Associate Professor, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
PhD Candidate in Disasters Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
In the present study, in order to investigate climate change in the western basin of Jazmourian Wetland, the fifth report model of the CanESM2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and new scenarios of release in the near future (2021-2050) were used. Drought severity classes were followed. Finally, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was used to elucidate the trend of annual changes in precipitation component. The results of CanESM2 model show that the average rainfall at Delfard and Dehroud stations has decreased by 0.019 and 0.036% under RCP2.6 scenario. On the other hand, in Kahnooj and Miandeh stations of Jiroft, in this scenario, the rainfall in the next period compared to the base period has increased by 0.085 and 0.17%. These changes in other scenarios have similar decreasing and increasing changes. The results of the rainfall trend indicate that in a number of stations, the trend is significant and in some non-trendy trends that have a downward or upward trend. Also, the results of SPI drought index in the region indicate an increase in drought from humid to more acute conditions. In this index, the highest frequency is related to normal class and the lowest frequency is related to very severe drought. As its situation is more acute in the future. Due to the fact that rainfall has decreased in most stations and on the other hand, the drought in the region has been intensified.