Evaluating climatic periods in predicting subsidence rates using numerical modeling (Case study: Najafabad aquifer)

Kardan Moghaddam, Hamid; Akbarzadeh, Abbas

doi:10.22059/ije.2025.386827.1855

Evaluating climatic periods in predicting subsidence rates using numerical modeling (Case study: Najafabad aquifer)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Hamid kardan moghaddam ¹ ^¶
Abbas Akbarzadeh ²

¹ Assistant Research Professor, Department of Water resources studies and research, Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran

² Assistant Research Professor,Water and Wastewater research Center (WWRC), Water Research Institute (WRI), Tehran, Iran

10.22059/ije.2025.386827.1855

Abstract

Objective: The management approach is one of the most strategic principles in the discussion of water resources management, considering the conditions of water scarcity and climatic stresses. This issue has led to the emergence of various approaches to evaluate and identify the dimensions of the issue.
Method: One of the challenges created by the issue of groundwater resource management is the overexploitation of the aquifer, which has caused land subsidence in clay layers in alluvial aquifers.Accordingly, the approach of using numerical models to identify and zone areas prone to subsidence is very efficient due to its predictability.In this regard, the simulation of the Najafabad aquifer, which was carried out using the SUB package in the MODFLOW model due to the high aquifer drawdown in recent years, was carried out.
Results: Based on the results obtained, the aquifer is affected by over-abstraction due to the lack of water supply and demand management, and the developments made due to the reduction in surface flow have caused a significant increase in pressure on groundwater resources, causing aquifer drawdown from a quantitative perspective and land subsidence in parts of the aquifer.The results showed that the rate of land subsidence in the central and outlet parts of the aquifer was higher due to the high concentration of exploitation wells and reached a maximum of more than 30 centimeters per year.
Conclusions: These changes in land subsidence were also analyzed according to the conditions affected by the depth of groundwater about climatic fluctuations, and the model results showed that the highest amount of subsidence occurred during drought periods

Keywords

Main Subjects

Groundwater resources

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