Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Hydro-Climatic Parameters in the Dam Basin of Ekbatan, Hamedan

Document Type : Research Article



Climate change is one of the most important factors that will affect different parts of human life on earth and will be adverse effects on environmental resources, economic, social and especially water resources, with changes in rainfall and timing of runoff amount.One of the strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change is to assess its effects on precipitation, temperature and runoff in each region.In this reaserch, assessing uncertainty of climate change models; ‏MPEH5, HadCM3 and IPCM4 for 2045-2065 period under two scenarios and affects on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the basin Ekbatan, Hamedan. So first determine efficiency LARS-WG model for downscaling of temperature and precipitation variables then assessing IHACRES hydrological model to simulate the runoff. Finally the monthly rainfall, temperature and runoff data were analyzed for the period 2065-2045 compared to base period 2010-1983. The results show that the annual mean temperature increase in 2065-2045 period under the scenario A2, 2/12 and B1, 1/12 ° C and annual rainfall decreases under the scenario A2, -6/1 and B 1, -1/4 percent. In addition, runoff decreases under the A2 scenario -17/2% and B1, -4/19 percent. In view of the uncertainty of climate models under two scenarios A2 and B1 increase temperature and decreases rainfall in the basin and These changes will have negative effects on amount of runoff in the basin.


Main Subjects

1-Azari M , Moradi HR, Saghafian B, Faramarzi M. Assessment of Hydrological Effects of Climate Change in Gourganroud River Basin.Journal of Water and Soil ,Vol. 27, No.3, Jul. Agu. 2013; p. 537-547. [Persian]
2-Babaiya A, NajafinikZ. Introducing and evaluation of Lars Model for modelling of meteorological parametersin Khorasan province during 1961-2003. Neyvar magazine, 2006; 62 and 63(fall and winter (2006-2007)): p. 49-65. [Persian]
3- Sohrabian E, Meftah Halaghi M, Ghorbani Kh, Golian S, Zakerinia M.Effects of climate change on runoff from rainfall ,Case study. Galikesh Watershed in Golestan. J of Water and Soil Conservation.2015; Vol. 22(2). [Persian]
4-Ashofteh P, Massah Bouani A R. Impact of Climate Change on Maximum Discharges: Case Study of Aidoghmoush Basin, East Azerbaijan. JWSS - Isfahan University of Technology. 2010; 14 (53) :28-38. [Persian]
5-hejazizadeh Z, ashofteh P S, fatahi E, Gholampour Z. Analysis of Streamflow Changes under Climate Change Using Rainfall-Runoff Model in the Kor River Basin. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology (JAST). 2015; 15 (38) :31-47. [Persian]
6- Modaresi F, Araghinejad Sh, Ebrahimi K, Kholgh M. Assessment of Climate Change Effects on the Annual Water Yield of Rivers, A Case Study of Gorganroud River, IRAN. Journal of Water and Soil. 2012 ; Vol. 25, No. 6, Jan-Feb, p. 1365-1377[Persian].
7-Ghasemi E, Fattahi E, Babaie O. Impact of Climate Change on feature runoff Approach to uncertainty of AOGCMs. Arid Regions Geographic Studies. 2013; 4 (13) :37-53. [Persian]
8-Ghorbanizadeh Kharaz H, Sedghi H, Saghafian B, Porhemmat J. Study on the Effect of Climate Change on Snowmelt Runoff Timing in Karoon Basin. jwmseir. 2010; 3 (9):45-50. [Persian]

9-Taei Semiromi S, Moradi H R, Khodagholi M. Evaliuation Change in Nayshabour Bar River flow Under Differents Climate Change Scenarios.2014 ; Journal of Human and Environment. Volume 12, Issue 2, Summer, Page 1-19. [Persian]

10- Kamal AR, Massah Bavani AR. Climate Change and Variability Impact in Basin’s Runoff with Interference of Tow Hydrology Models Uncertainty Journal of Water and Soil.2010; Vol. 24, No. 5, Nov-Des, p. 920-931. [Persian]

11- Goudarzi M , Boroumand S , Asaad H.Study on Effects of Climate Changes on Surface Runoff Changes Case Study: Urmia Lake Basin , Iranian Journal of Ecohydrology 2015; Volume 2, Issue 2, Summer, Page 175-189. [Persian]

12- Massah Bavani AR, Morid S. Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of Zayandeh Rud Basin. JWSS. Isfahan University of Technology. 2006; 9 (4) :17-28. [Persian]
13- Mozayyan M, Akhoond Ali AM, Massah Bavani AR, Radmanesh F, Zohrabi N. The Impact of Climate Change on Low Flows (Case Study: Sepid Dasht Sezar) Volume & Issue: Journal of irrigation science and engineering. 2015 ; Volume 38, Issue 2, Autumn. [Persian]
14-Abbaspour K.C., Faramarzi, M., Ghasemi, S.S. and Yang, H. 2009. Assessing the impact of climate change onwater resources in Iran. Water Resources Research. 45(10): p. W10434.
15-Croke, B. F. W. & Jakeman, A. J. (2004), A catchment moisture deficit module for the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model, Environmental Modelling & Software, 19, 1-5.
16-Chang، H. Jung I.W. 2010. Spatial and temporal changes in runoff caused by climate change in a complex largeriver basin in Oregon. Journal of Hydrology 388(3–4): p. 186-207.
17-Gosain A., Rao S., Basuray D. 2006. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basins. Current Science, 90(3):p. 346-353.
18-Hamlet, A.F. and Lettenmaier D.P. 2007. Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk inthe western U.S. Water Resour. Res., 43(6): p. W06427.
19.Hadley, C.2006. Effect of climate change in the developing countries. UK Meteorological
20-Jakeman AJ, Hornberger GM (1993) How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall–runoff model? WaterResour Res 29(8):2637–2649.
21-Littlewood, I. G. (2002), Improved unit hydrograph characterisation of the daily flow regime (including low flows) for the River Teifi, Wales: towards better rainfall-streamflow models for regionalisation, Hydrology and Earth Sciences, 6 (5), 899-911.
22-Pruski F.F. Nearing M.A. 2002. Runoff and soil-loss responses to changes in precipitation: A computer simulation study. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 57(1): p. 7-16.
23-Roeckner, E. 2003. "The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Simulated climatology and comparison with observations". Report No.349, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg.
24-Semenov, M.A., Donatelli, M., Stratonovitch, P., Chatzidaki, E. and Baruth, B., 2010, ELPIS: a Dataset of Local-Scale Daily Climate Scenarios for Europe, Journal of Climate Researches, Vol. 1, No. 44, PP. 3–15.
25-Senatore A., Mendicino G., Smiatek G. Kunstmann H. 2011.Regional climate change projections and hydrological impact analysis for a Mediterranean basin in Southern Italy.Journal of Hydrology339:70-92.
26-Turley, Marianne, E. David Ford.2009. Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models. Ecological Modelling 220 (2009) 1968–1983. pp 1969-1983.
27-Ye, W., B. C. Bates, N. R. Viney, M. Sivapalan and A. J. Jakeman 1997, ‘Performance of conceptual rainfall-runoff models in low-yielding ephemeral catchments’, Water Resources Research, vol 33, pp 153-16.
28-Zarghami, M.Abdi, A., Babaeian, I., Hassanzadeh, Y. and Kanani, R. 2011. Impacts of climate change on runoffsin East Azerbaijan, Iran. Global and Planetary Change, 78(3–4): p. 137-146.
Volume 3, Issue 2
June 2016
Pages 181-194
  • Receive Date: 03 September 2016
  • Revise Date: 10 November 2016
  • Accept Date: 11 November 2016
  • First Publish Date: 11 November 2016