پیش ‏بینی بارش در حوضۀ آبریز کرخه با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه انرژی‏ های نو و محیط زیست، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ‏ارشد مهندسی اکوهیدرولوژی، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

یکی از مسائل مهم در مدیریت و برنامه‏ریزی منابع آب کشور، پیش‏بینی تغییرات بارش در دوره‏های آینده است. هدف از تحقیق حاضر، بررسی روند تغییرات بارش 19 سال آینده حوضة آبریز کرخه با استفاده از 6 ایستگاه سینوپتیک (اسلام‏آباد غرب، بستان، خرم‏آباد، روانسر، کنگاور و ملایر) است. ابتدا داده‏های اقلیمی دورة پایه از سال 1998 تا سال 2016 به صورت روزانه فراهم شد. سپس، داده‏های خروجی مدل گردش عمومی جو IPCM4 با سه سناریوی تغییر اقلیم A1B، A2 و B1 توسط مدل LARS-WG در حوضة آبریز کرخه ریزمقیاس شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از تغییرات بارش، در 6 ایستگاه سینوپتیک حوضة آبریز کرخه در دورة پایه (2016-1998) و دورة آینده (2017ـ 2035) ‌ارزیابی و تجزیه‌وتحلیل شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده‌ از بررسی میانگین بارش نشان می‏دهد در ایستگاه‏های اسلام‏آباد غرب، بستان، روانسر و ملایر میزان بارندگی 19 سال دورة آینده نسبت به 19 سال دورة گذشته بر اساس هر سه سناریوی A1B و A2 و B1 افزایش پیدا می‏کند و سناریوی اقلیمی A2 افزایش بیشتری را نسبت به دیگر سناریوها نشان می‏دهد. همچنین، میزان بارندگی دورة آینده نسبت به دورة گذشته در ایستگاه کنگاور، طبق هر سه سناریوی A1B و A2 و B1 کاهش خواهد یافت. در ایستگاه خرم‏آباد فقط طبق سناریوی A2 افزایش بارندگی در دورۀ آینده نسبت به دورۀ گذشته خواهد بود و طبق سناریوهای A1B و B1 میزان بارندگی دورة آتی روند کاهشی خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasting of Precipitation in Karkheh Catchment Area through LARS-WG Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Hossein Jahangir 1
  • Arad Asadi 2
  • Eghbal Noroozi 2
  • Maryam Talei 2
1 Assistant Professor, Facuty of New Sciences & Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran
2 M.Sc. Student of Ecohydrolog Engineering, Facuty of New Sciences & Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Forecasting of precipitation changes in the next periods is one of the most important issues in water resources management and planning. The present paper aims to investigate the trend of precipitation changes of Karkheh Catchment Area in 19 following years through 6 synoptic stations (Eslam Abad Gharb, Bostan, Khorram Abad, Ravansar, Kangavar, and Malayer). Firstly, climate data of the basic period was provided daily from 1998 to 2016. Then, output data of IPCM4 Atmospheric General Circulation Model became microscale through A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios of climate change through LARS-WG Model in Karkheh Catchment Area. Results obtained from precipitation changes were evaluated and analyzed in 6 synoptic stations of Karkheh Catchment Area in the basic period (1998-2016) and the next period (2017-2035). Results of investigating precipitation average represent that the precipitation during the next 19 years will increase compared to 19 previous years based on all A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in stations of Eslam Abad Gharb, Bostan, Ravansar, and Malayer, and A2 Scenario shows more increase rather than the others. Moreover, according to all three scenarios, precipitation during the next period will decrease compared to the previous period in Kangavar Station. According to A2 Scenario, there will be more precipitation in the next period compared to the previous period in Khorram Abad Station and the precipitation during the next period will decrease according to A1B and B1 Scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • IPCM4 Model
  • Scenario
  • Greenhouse Gases
[1].  Kilsby C, Jones P, Burton A, Ford A, Fowler H, Harpham C, James P, Smith A, Wilby R. A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Journal of Environmental Modeling and Software. 2007; 22 (12) 1705-1719.
[2].  Gharibdoost M, Ghorbani MA, Forouzandeh SI. Estimation of the effect of climate change on precipitation-runoff of Sofeh Chai watershed. Journal of Water Resources Engineering. 2016; 9 (29) 29-17 [Persian].
[3].  Roshanfekr A, Mollaehnia M, Ajamzadeh A. Evaluation of the effects of climate change with IPCM4 microscale model under Scenario A2 (Case study: Sabzevar Station), 3rd International Congress of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Development. Shahid Beheshti University. Iran. 2015. [Persian].
[4].  Hamidianpour M, Baaghideh M, Abbasnia M. Evaluation of temperature and precipitation changes in southeastern Iran using microscopic output of various atmospheric general circulation models in the period 2099-2011. Journal of Natural Geography Research. 2016; 48 (1) 123-107 [Persian].
[5].  Ashraf B, Moosavibayegi M, Kamali GH, Davari K. Investigating the process of changing the climatic parameters of Mashhad in the period 2011-2030 Using data simulated by the model LARS-WG. First National Conference on Meteorology and Agricultural Water Management. Karaj Agricultural and Natural Resources Campus. Karaj. Iran. 2010 [Persian].
[6].  Miller NL, Bashford KE, Strem E. Potential impacts of climate change on California hydrology. Journal of American Water Resources Association. 2014; 39 (4) 771-784.
[7].  Mehdizadeh S, Moftah HM, Seyed Ghasemi S, Masaedi A. The effect of climate change on rainfall in Golestan Dam basin. Journal of Water and Soil Conservation Research (Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources). 2011; 18 (3) 132-117 [Persian].
[8].  Rezaei M, Nohtani M, Abkar A, Rezaei M, Mirkazehi Rigi M. Performance Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Forecasting Temperature Indexes in Two Arid and Hyper Arid Regions (Case Study: Kerman and Bam). Journal ofWatershed Management Research. 2014; 5 (10) 117-131[Persian].
[9].  Chen H, Guo J, Zhang Z, Xu CY. Prediction of temperature and precipitation in Sudan and South Sudan by using LARS-WG in future. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2013; 113 (3) 363-375.
[10].            Jahangir M, Norouzi E, Yarahmadi Y. Simulation of Rain Climate Parameter Using LARS-WG Microscopic Model and HadCM3 General Circulation Using Three Different Scenarios at Isfahan Station. 2nd National Iranian Hydrology Conference. Shahrekord University. Iran. 2017 [Persian].
[11].            Zhao Y, Camberlin P, Richard Y. Validation of a coupled GCM and projection of summer rainfall change over South Africa, using a statistical downscaling method. Journal of Climate Research. 2005; 28 (2) 109-122.
[12].            Abbasi F, Malbousi Sh, Babaian I, Asmari M, Borhani R. Forecasting Climate Change in South Khorasan in the Period of 2039-2010 Using ECGO-G Output Statistical Microscopy. Water and Soil Magazine. 2010; 24 (2) 233-218 [Persian].
[13].            Abbasi F, Babaian I, Asmari M, Borhani R. Evaluation of climate change in Iran in the coming decades (2025 - 2100) using microscale data of atmospheric general circulation model data. Journal of Geographical Research. 2012; 27 (1) 229-205. [Persian].
[14].            Zia Hashmi M, Shamseldin AY, Melville, BW. Comparison of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulation and downscaling of extreme precipitation events in a watershed. Journal of Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 2011; 25 (4) 475-484.
[15].            Zahraei A. Simulation of Climate Change in Sistan and Baluchestan Province Using Micro-Circuit Model (GCMS) Data Circulation for Climate Period (2009 - 2040). Bachelor's Thesis in Climate Studies. Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning. Sistan and Baluchestan University. 2012 [Persian].
[16].            Goodarzi M, Khosrovanian J, Hejazi SA. Application of LARS-WG model in predicting meteorological parameters of Gharasoo watershed. Journal of Geographical Space. 2015; 51 (15) 279-263 [Persian].
[17].            Babaeian I, Najafinik Z, Zabol Abbasi F, Habibi Nokhandan M, Adab H, Melboosi SH. Assessing the country's climate change in the period 2010-2039 using microscopic data mining of atmospheric general circulation model ECHO-G Journal of Geography and Development. 2009; 16 (7) 152-1350 [Persian].
[18].            SajjadKhan M, Coulibaly P, Dibike, Y. Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods. Journal of Hydrology. 2006; 319 (1) 357-382.