Forecasting of Precipitation in Karkheh Catchment Area through LARS-WG Model

Document Type : Research Article


1 Assistant Professor, Facuty of New Sciences & Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran

2 M.Sc. Student of Ecohydrolog Engineering, Facuty of New Sciences & Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran


Forecasting of precipitation changes in the next periods is one of the most important issues in water resources management and planning. The present paper aims to investigate the trend of precipitation changes of Karkheh Catchment Area in 19 following years through 6 synoptic stations (Eslam Abad Gharb, Bostan, Khorram Abad, Ravansar, Kangavar, and Malayer). Firstly, climate data of the basic period was provided daily from 1998 to 2016. Then, output data of IPCM4 Atmospheric General Circulation Model became microscale through A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios of climate change through LARS-WG Model in Karkheh Catchment Area. Results obtained from precipitation changes were evaluated and analyzed in 6 synoptic stations of Karkheh Catchment Area in the basic period (1998-2016) and the next period (2017-2035). Results of investigating precipitation average represent that the precipitation during the next 19 years will increase compared to 19 previous years based on all A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in stations of Eslam Abad Gharb, Bostan, Ravansar, and Malayer, and A2 Scenario shows more increase rather than the others. Moreover, according to all three scenarios, precipitation during the next period will decrease compared to the previous period in Kangavar Station. According to A2 Scenario, there will be more precipitation in the next period compared to the previous period in Khorram Abad Station and the precipitation during the next period will decrease according to A1B and B1 Scenarios.


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Volume 7, Issue 4
January 2021
Pages 981-992
  • Receive Date: 09 May 2020
  • Revise Date: 25 September 2020
  • Accept Date: 25 September 2020
  • First Publish Date: 01 December 2020
  • Publish Date: 21 December 2020