ارزیابی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر ویژگی‌های خشکسالی و ریسک دوره‌های بازگشت سه‌متغیره در مناطق غربی ایران

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه ملایر، ملایر، ایران.

2 دکترای آبخیزداری- آب، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

3 دکترای آبخیزداری- آب، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زیمن، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران

چکیده

موضوع: خشکسالی یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی است که تأثیرات گسترده‌ای بر منابع آب، کشاورزی و محیط‌زیست دارد. تغییرات اقلیمی در سال‌های اخیر باعث افزایش شدت و مدت خشکسالی در بسیاری از مناطق جهان ازجمله ایران شده است. بررسی ویژگی‌های خشکسالی و تحلیل روندهای آیندۀ آن نقش مهمی در مدیریت منابع آب و کاهش اثرات این پدیده دارد.
هدف: این پژوهش با هدف بررسی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر ویژگی‌های خشکسالی در مناطق غربی ایران انجام شده است. تمرکز اصلی این مطالعه بر تغییرات شدت، مدت و بزرگی خشکسالی تحت سناریوهای مختلف اقلیمی است. همچنین، ریسک وقوع هم‌زمان این ویژگی‌ها و تأثیر آن بر مدیریت منابع آب مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است.
روش تحقیق: برای تحلیل تغییرات اقلیمی، مدل گردش عمومی HadCM3 و مدل ریزمقیاس‌نمایی LARS-WG برای شبیه‌سازی داده‌های اقلیمی استفاده شد. داده‌های اقلیمی تاریخی (۱۹۶۶-۲۰۰۰) برای ارزیابی مدل و داده‌های (۲۰۰۱-۲۰۰۵) برای صحت‌سنجی به کار رفتند. خروجی مدل برای دورۀ ۲۰۲۰ تا ۲۰۵۰ تحت دو سناریوی SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5  تولید شد. از توابع کاپولا و برازش توزیع‌های حاشیه‌ای برای بررسی ارتباط میان شدت، مدت و بزرگی خشکسالی استفاده شد.
یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان داد که مدل LARS-WG دقت بالایی در شبیه‌سازی داده‌های اقلیمی دارد. تحلیل ویژگی‌های خشکسالی نشان داد که شدت، مدت و بزرگی خشکسالی در آینده افزایش خواهد یافت، به‌ویژه تحت سناریوی SSP5-8.5 . همچنین، در دوره‌های بازگشت کوتاه، ریسک وقوع هم‌زمان این ویژگی‌ها در SSP5-8.5 بیشتر از SSP2-4.5 است؛ اما در دوره‌های بازگشت طولانی‌تر، این ریسک کاهش یافته و احتمال وقوع خشکسالی‌های شدید کمتر می‌شود.
نتیجه‌گیری: بررسی‌های انجام‌‌شده نشان داد که تغییرات اقلیمی نه‌تنها شدت و مدت خشکسالی را افزایش می‌دهد، بلکه ساختار وابستگی میان شاخص‌های خشکسالی را نیز تغییر داده و ریسک وقوع هم‌زمان آن‌ها را تشدید می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


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دوره 12، شماره 1
فروردین 1404
صفحه 635-656
  • تاریخ دریافت: 12 بهمن 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 06 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 24 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 24 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 فروردین 1404