کاربرد مدل CA-Markovدر حوزه آبخیز مندرجان زاینده رود جهت پیش بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی

نجفی, علی; هنربخش, افشین; پژوهش, مهدی; عبدالهی, خدایار

doi:10.22059/ije.2026.408768.1902

کاربرد مدل CA-Markovدر حوزه آبخیز مندرجان زاینده رود جهت پیش بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشجوی دکتری رشتۀ علوم و مهندسی آبخیز، گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، ایران

² گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، آبخیزداری، دانشگاه شهرکرد، ایران

³ گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، آبخیزداری، عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه شهرکرد، ایران

10.22059/ije.2026.408768.1902

چکیده

حوضۀ آبخیز مندرجان از تغییرات شدید در نوع کاربری اراضی مصون نمانده است. به ‏طور کلی، هدف اصلی این مطالعه پیش‌بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی با کاربرد مدل CA-Markov در حوضۀ آبخیز مندرجان استان اصفهان است. برای این‌منظور، از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای لندست مربوط به سال‌های 1991، 2001، 2011، 2021 (در مقاطع زمانی 10ساله) استفاده شد. نقشۀ پوشش اراضی در 4 کلاس کاربری اراضی (شامل اراضی کشاورزی، اراضی کوهستانی، مرتع و اراضی مسکونی) تهیه شد. ضریب کاپای حاصل از نقشۀ کاربری اراضی سال 2011 و پیش‌بینی‌شده برابر با 0/96 و برای سال 2021 برابر با 0/969 بود. نتایج نشان می‏دهد اختلاف‏های طبقه‏های مختلف متفاوت است و بزرگی آن به طور کلی در سال 2011 کمتر از 9 درصد و در سال 2021 کمتر از 15 درصد است. بررسی روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی سال‌های 2031 و 2041 نسبت به سال 2021 نشان داد بیشترین تغییرات افزایشی از لحاظ سطح، اراضی کشاورزی است. در بین تغییرات کاهشی نیز مرتع با 315 و 868 هکتار به‌ترتیب در سال‌های 2031 و 2041 شاهد خواهیم بود. افزایش سطح اراضی کشاورزی و مسکونی باعث کاهش سطح اراضی مرتعی به همین میزان در سال‌های 2031 و 2041 شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

اکوهیدرولوژی

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