شناسایی الگوهای پیوند از دور مؤثر بر بارش حوضۀ کارون

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقلیم‏ شناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه اصفهان

2 استادیار دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی دانشگاه شهرکرد

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقلیم‏ شناسی دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

‌الگوهای پیوند از دور جزء سازندگان کلان‌اقلیم در مقیاس‏های منطقه‏ای و جهانی هستند. شناخت الگوهای پیوند از دور مؤثر بر بارش حوضۀ آبی کارون بزرگ؛ هدف این پژوهش است. بدین‌منظور داده‏های بارش فصلی ایستگاه‏های موجود در حوضه طی دورۀ آماری (1956‌ـ 2012) و 12 الگوی پیوند از دور بررسی شده‏اند. روش انجام کارِ تحلیلِ داده‏ها با تکنیک‏های آماری همبستگی و تحلیل مؤلفه‏های اصلی است. جایگاه نخست در این حوضه با 7/49 درصد بارش در فصل زمستان، فصل پاییز با 9/34 درصد در جایگاه دوم و فصل بهار با 9/14 درصد در جایگاه سوم قرار دارد. نتایج بررسی‏ها نشان می‏دهد که بارش‏های پاییزه بیشتر از الگوهای نوسانات جنوبی NINO4، NINO1+2،NINO3.4 و SOI تأثیر می‏پذیرند. مقادیر منفی ضریب همبستگی بین بارش فصل پاییز و شاخص SOI و واریانس تبیینی بیش از 77 درصد این شاخص نشانگر آن است که میزان بارش‏های پاییزه تحت تأثیر النینو قرار دارند. تحلیل بارش‏های زمستانه و بهاره نیز بیانگر تأثیر شاخص الگوی اسکاندیناوی در فاز مثبت (SCAN+) بر بارش‏ها در این دو فصل است. این شاخص به‌دلیل استقرار در محدودۀ جغرافیایی‌ـ اقلیمی سامانه‏هایی مانند پرفشار دریای سیاه، جبهۀ قطبی و بادهای غربی تا 68 درصد از تغییرات فصل سرد سال را تبیین می‌کند. بارش‏های تابستانۀ حوضه عمدتاً تابع عوامل محلی هستند و پدیده‏های پیوند از دور در آن مؤثر نیستند.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identify Tele-connection Patterns affecting on Rainfall in Karoon Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Dariush Rahimi 1
  • Khodayar Abdollahi 2
  • Sadat Hasheminasab3 3
1 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Isfahan, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Iran
3 Final year PhD. student in Climatology, Faculty of Geography, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The Tele-connection patterns are the major constituents of climate at global and regional scale(s). The Karoon Basin is of a vital stance in providing natural water supply and hydroelectric; this basin is facing major fluctuations in rainfall regime. Identifying the effect of Tele-connection on great Karoon Basin rainfall regime is the subject of this study. To accomplish this objective the seasonal-annual rainfall volumes recorded at stations related to this basin are assessed for the period of (1956-2012) through 12 Tele-connection patterns. The method applied here is the data analysis through correlation statistical techniques and analysis of the main climatic components. In this basin, 49.7% of precipitation is of the winter followed by autumn with 34.9% and spring with 14.9%. The findings of the analysis indicate that the precipitation in autumn is influenced mostly by NINO4, NINO1+2, NINO3.4 and SOI patterns. The analysis of winter and spring precipitation reveals the influence of SCAN+ phase on both these seasons. The precipitations of the basin do have a harmonized change pattern with Tele-connection pattern by addressing the delay time. It is deduced that these indicators can contribute to moist and dry cycle’s occurrence when the planning regarding this basin is of concern.
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall regime
  • Scandinavia index
  • ENSO
  • Tele-connection
  • Karoon Basin
 
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