پیش بینی وضعیت منابع آب تحت اثر تغییرات اقلیم به کمک مدل ANFIS و سناریوهای گردش عمومی جوّ (مطالعۀ موردی:حوضۀ زیارت شهر گرگان)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مربی، گروه مهندسی عمران دانشگاه بزرگمهر قائنات

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب و سازه‏ های هیدرولیکی، دانشکدۀ مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه سمنان

چکیده

وضعیت آتی منابع آب متأثر از تغییرات اقلیم در هر منطقه است و شبیه‏سازی بارش-رواناب برای دوره‏های آینده سهم مهمی در مدیریت منابع آب خواهد داشت. تغییر اقلیم می‏تواند توسط مدل گردش عمومی جوّ و سناریوهای مختلف اقلیمی شبیه‏سازی شود. در این تحقیق، اثر تغییرات اقلیم بر رواناب، بارش، دما و منابع آب منطقۀ زیارت استان گلستان بررسی شد. از مدل گردش عمومی جوّ HadCM3 تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی A1B، A2 و B1 برای سه دورۀ آتی 2011 تا 2030، 2046 تا 2065 و 2080 تا 2099 استفاده شد. برای ریزمقیاس‌نمایی خروجی‏های مدل HadCM3، مدل ANFIS به‌کار برده شد. نتایج آزمون t در سطح اعتماد 95 درصد نشان داد هیچ اختلاف معناداری بین نتایج مشاهده‏ای و شبیه‏سازی‌شده وجود ندارد. مقادیر پیش‏بینی‌شده بیان‌کنندۀ افزایش دما به مقدار 32/0 تا 77/1 درجۀ سانتی‏گراد است و کاهش میزان بارندگی نیز برای دوره‏های آتی به میزان 60/1 تا 46/31 میلی‏متر خواهد بود. در ادامه، داده‏های به‌دست‌آمده به همراه نقشۀ شمارۀ منحنی (CN) و خصوصیات فیزیوگرافی زیرحوضه، به‌دست‌آمده از نرم‌افزار ArcGIS، به عنوان ورودی به مدل HEC-HMS وارد شد تا دبی در دوره‏های اقلیمی آینده شبیه‏سازی شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد در هر سه سناریوی افق‏های 2020، 2055 و 2090، دبی پیک و حجم سیلاب کاهش یافته است و در هر سه افق یادشده، بیشترین کاهش مربوط به سناریوی A2 است. درصد کاهش دبی پیک و حجم تخلیه برای هر سناریو به‌ترتیب 72/1 و 83/1، 06/3 و 07/3، 43/4 و 48/4 برای دوره‏های آتی به‌دست آمد. نتایج ‌اجرای مدل، بیان می‌کند که آبگیری مناسبی در پشت مخازن صورت نمی‌گیرد. در نهایت، برای حل این مسئله راهکارهایی ارائه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of water resource status affected by climate change by ANFIS model and General Circulation Model (case study: Ziarat basin of Gorgan)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Hamed Shakib 1
  • Saeed Farzin 2
1 Msc, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Bozorgmehr University of Qaenat, Qaen, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this research, the effect of climate change on rainfall, runoff, temperature and water resource for Ziarat basin of Golestan province, was assessed. General ccirculation model, HadCM3, was used under three scenarios as A1B, A2 and B1 for 3 future time duration as 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099, respectively. In order to down scaling of HadCM3 output, ANFIS model was used. The predicted results showed increasing temperature as 0.32-1.77oC and decreasing precipitation as 1.6-31.46 mm for future durations. Then, the mentioned results, curve number map and physiographic parameters, basin and waterway slope, gained from Arc-GIS, as importing data to calibrated HEC-HMS model was made in order to simulate the discharge of climate future durations. Results presented the runoff volume and peak of discharge have decreased in all three scenarios for horizon 2020, 2055 and 2090 and for all mentioned horizons, the most of decreasing was related to A2 scenario. Percentage decrease in peak and discharge volume was obtained 1.72 and 1.83, 3.06 and 3.07, 4.43 and 4.48 for mentioned periods, respectively. Consequently, based on extracting information from models, no enough storage would happen in dams. Finally, some solution for this problem was presented.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Rainfall-runoff
  • Hadcm3
  • ANFIS
  • HEC-HMS
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