ارزیابی مدل‌ هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS در تخمین هیدروگراف سیل مناطق خشک و مرطوب

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجوی دکتری آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

چکیده

برای مدیریت مناسب رویدادهای طبیعی مانند سیل، استفاده از مدل‏های کامپیوتری به‏طور سریع در حال توسعه است و این مدل‏ها ابزارهای ضروری برای فهم انسان از فرایندهای هیدرولوژیکی حوضۀ آبخیز و مدیریت آن هستند. در این تحقیق با هدف مدیریت مناسب سیل مناطق خشک و مرطوب کارایی مدل HEC-HMS برای شبیه‏سازی وقایع مختلف سیل بررسی شد. به این‌منظور سه واقعۀ سیل در حوضۀ آبخیز کسیلیان با مساحت 8/67 کیلومترمربع با اقلیم مرطوب و سه واقعۀ سیل در حوضۀ آبخیز کارده با مساحت 2/93 کیلومترمربع با اقلیم کاملاً خشک در نظر گرفته شد. داده‏های هیتوگراف بارش بر پایۀ گام زمانی دقیقه‏ای و داده‏های هیدروگراف سیل مربوط به هر واقعه به مدل وارد شدند. سپس، تخمین هیدروگراف سیل بر پایۀ گام زمانی 30 دقیقه‏ای انجام شد. آنالیز حساسیت پارامترها با استفاده از روش آزمون و خطا نشان داد پارامتر CN نسبت به سایر پارامترها حساسیت زیادی دارد و این حساسیت در منطقۀ خشک نسبت به منطقۀ مرطوب بیشتر است. نمایه‏های آماری ضریب همبستگی (R2)، ضریب نش- ساتکلیف (NS) و مجموع مربعات خطا (CP) بر حسب مترمکعب بر ثانیه برای ارزیابی کارایی مدل‏ ‌استفاده شد. مقادیر این نمایه‏ها در حوضۀ آبخیز کسیلیان برای سیلاب‏های شبیه‏سازی‌شده به‏ترتیب بین 84/0 تا 93/0، 78/0 تا 81/0 و 13/96 تا 188 و در حوضۀ آبخیز کارده مقادیر این نمایه‏ها به‏ترتیب بین 76/0 تا 89/0، 71/0 تا 75/0و 4/113 تا 7/216 به‏دست آمد. نتایج نشان می‏دهد مدل HEC-HMS در هر دو حوضۀ آبخیز دقت مناسبی دارند و در حوضۀ آبخیز منطقۀ مرطوب نسبت به منطقۀ خشک کارایی این مدل برای مدیریت وقایع سیل نسبتاً بیشتر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Performance of HEC-HMS Hydrological Model in Simulation of Flood Hydrograph in arid and humid watersheds

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Yousefi 1
  • Mohammad Golshan 2
  • Abdollah Pirnia 2
1 مدیر گروه علوم و فناوریهای محیطی، دانشکده علوم و فنون نوین دانشگاه تهران
2 Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari
چکیده [English]

In these studies the ability of hydrological model HEC-HMS was used for simulation the six flood hydrograph in Kasilian watershed with 67.8 km2 area with semi-humid to the humid climate and in Kardeh watershed with 93.2 km2 area with completely dry climate. Rainfall hyetographs data with minute time step and related flood hydrographs were entered to model; so floods hydrographs were simulated with 30 minute time step. Parameters sensitivity analysis by trial and error methods showed that the CN parameter have high sensitivity than the others. The CN parameter sensitivity in the arid area is higher than humid area. The R2, NS and CP coefficients with cubic meters per second unit were used for model performance. The values of these coefficients in Kasilian watershed for simulated floods were between 0.84 to 0.93, 0.78 to 0.81, and 96.13 to 188, respectively. In Kardeh watershed these coefficients calculated between 0.76 to 0.89, 0.71 to 0.75 and 113.4 to 216.7, respectively. The results showed that the model performances are acceptable in both watersheds. But in the humid watershed the model had high performance for watershed management implement works than the dry watershed

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Flood
  • simulation
  • Hydrograph
  • Kasilian
  • Kardeh
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