تحلیل عدم قطعیت مدل شبیه‌سازی-بهینه‌سازی آبخوان با استفاده از الگوریتم مونت کارلو (زنجیرۀ مارکوف)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکدۀ محیط زیست، پردیس دانشکده‌های فنی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار، دانشکدۀ محیط زیست، پردیس دانشکده‌های فنی، دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار، دانشکدۀ محیط زیست، پردیس دانشکده‌های فنی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

تحلیل عدم قطعیت، مرحله‏ای جدانشدنی در فرایند مدل‏سازی‏های هیدرولوژی است. ارزیابی کمی عدم قطعیت در خروجی‏های مدل شبیه‏سازی و تخمین پارامترهای آن، موجب افزایش اطمینان در نتایج مدل‏سازی و شناخت درستی از منابع عدم قطعیت می‏شود. با توجه به رشد روزافزون کاربرد مدل‏های آب زیرزمینی در مدیریت و پیش‏بینی رفتار آبخوان‏ها، ‌پژوهش حاضر به‌منظور تحلیل عدم‏ قطعیت در شبیه‌سازی کمی-کیفی آبخوان و تأثیر آن در نتایج بهینه‌سازی انجام شد. با استفاده از مدل هیدرولوژیکی SWAT، میزان تغذیه مشخص شده و وارد مدل جریان آب زیرزمینی MODFLOW و مدل انتقال آلاینده MT3DMS شد. در تحقیق حاضر از الگوریتم DREAMzs که یکی از الگوریتم‌های مبتنی بر مونت کارلو (زنجیرۀ مارکوف) است، به منظور بررسی عدم قطعیت پارامترهای مدل MODFLOW استفاده شد. در ادامه، با لینک‌کردن مدل با MOPSO میزان بهینۀ هد و شوری در آبخوان مد نظر به‌دست آمد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان داد میزان دقت در ورودی‌های مدل سبب مطلوبیت در نتایج با توجه به هدف تعیین‌شده که کاهش میزان افت آب است، شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


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دوره 6، شماره 1
فروردین 1398
صفحه 137-151
  • تاریخ دریافت: 31 شهریور 1397
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 10 آذر 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 10 آذر 1397
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 01 فروردین 1398
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 فروردین 1398