تحلیل شاخص پایداری سیستم‏های جمع‏آوری آب‏های سطحی تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم (مطالعۀ موردی: منطقۀ 11 شهرداری تهران)

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

بررسی تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم بر فرایندهای هیدرولوژیکی، به‏ویژه سیلاب‏های شهری، برای سازگاری و تعدیل آثار آن اهمیت زیادی دارد. در مطالعۀ حاضر،ابتدا با هدف ارزیابی وضعیت سیستم‏های زهکشی شهری، تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر بارش‏های حدی ناحیۀ یکم منطقۀ 11 شهر تهران در دورۀ 2020-2049 با استفاده از 10 مدل AOGCM تحت دو سناریوی RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 بررسی شد. سپس، یک سناریوی میانه به عنوان حالت تجمیعی از نتایج تمام مدل‏های اقلیمی یادشده در نظر گرفته شد. پس از آن، با استفاده از نرم‏افزار SWMM وضعیت شبکۀ فرعی زهکشی منطقه در شرایط موجود و همچنین حالت میانۀ تمام سناریوهای یادشده در شرایط آتی بررسی شد. درنهایت، عملکرد شبکه با محاسبۀ شاخص‏های کارایی شامل اطمینان‏پذیری، برگشت‏پذیری، آسیب‏پذیری و پایداری ارزیابی شد. برای شبیه‏سازی سیلاب‏های منطقه، از رگبار طرح با دورۀ ‏بازگشت پنج و 10 سال استفاده شد. نتایج شبیه‏سازی سیلاب نشان‏ می‏دهد در شرایط فعلی با وقوع بارشی با دورۀ ‏بازگشت پنج و 10 سال، در مجموع 25/23 درصد و در شرایط آتی حدود 22 درصد از طول کانال‏های منطقه دچار آب‏گرفتگی خواهند شد. شاخص پایداری شبکه نیز تحت تأثیر این بارش‏ها بررسی و مشخص شد. پایداری سیستم زهکشی منطقه در شرایط فعلی 89/77 درصد و در شرایط آتی تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 به‌ترتیب 73/77 و 61/77 درصد است. به‏طور کلی، مشخص شد در دورۀ‏ آتی تحت تأثیر هر دو سناریوی تغییر اقلیم حجم سیلاب و تعداد نقاط آب‌گرفتگی شبکه در مقایسه با شرایط کنونی افزایش چشمگیری نخواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Sustainability Index in Stormwater Drainage Systems under the Climate Change Impacts (Case Study: District 11 of Tehran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • parichehreh behzadi 1
  • Abbas Roozbahani 2
  • Alireza Massah Bavani 2
1 MSc. Student of Water Resources Engineering, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological processes especially urban floods to adapt and modify its effects, is essential. In this study, the impact of climate change on the extreme rainfall in district 1 zone 11 of Tehran during the period 2020-2049 was investigated by using 10 AOGCM models under two scenarios including Rcp2.6 and Rcp8.5. Then a median scenario was considered as an aggregate of the results of all the above mentioned climatic models, and by using the SWMM software, the function of sub drainage system of the region in the current and future situations was examined in the future. Finally the function of network evaluated by using the performance indexes contains reliability, resiliency, vulnerability and sustainability. To simulate flooding of the area, a precipitation with a 5 and 10 years of return period was used. The results of simulation indicate that in the current situation a total of %38.2 and in future conditions about %40 of the length of the canals in the area will be flooded. The sustainability index of the network was also investigated under the influence of precipitation. The sustainability of the drainage system in the region was %72.79 in the present condition and the future under the scenario Rcp2.6, and Rcp8.5 were %71.06 and %72.78 respectively. Generally, it was found that in the future period under the influence of both climate change scenarios the flood volume and the number of flooding points will not increase significantly compared to the current situation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • resiliency
  • Vulnerability
  • sustainability
  • climate change
  • Urban Runoff
 

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