ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر خشکسالی و پیش‌بینی رواناب حوضۀ رودخانۀ نکا طی دوره‌های آتی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

چکیده

مطالعات متعدد نشان داده‏اند تغییرات آب‌وهوایی تأثیرات شدیدی بر منابع آب موجود در سراسر جهان خواهد گذاشت. با توجه به تأثیر تغییرات آب‌وهوایی بر وقوع خشکسالی‏ها و جریان رودخانه، ضروری است که وقوع خشکسالی و وضعیت منابع آب در شرایط تغییر اقلیم بررسی شود. در پژوهش حاضر به بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر شاخص خشکسالی SPI و رواناب حوضۀ رودخانۀ نکا در استان مازندران پرداخته شد. به این منظور، از داده‏های ایستگاه‏های هواشناسی بارکلا، پجیم، سفیدچاه، گلورد و تیرتاش استفاده شد. داده‏های تاریخی آبدهی رودخانۀ نکا نیز در محل سد گلورد از ایستگاه هیدرومتری گلورد به دست آمد. سپس، پارامترهای اقلیمی دما و بارش طی دورۀ آتی 2019ـ 2081، تحت سه سناریوی اقلیمی RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 برای حوضۀ رودخانۀ نکا شبیه‏سازی شد. برای تعیین مقادیر میانگین پارامترهای اقلیمی بارش و دما، از روش خطوط هم‌باران و برای شبیه‏سازی رواناب از مدل IHACRES استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد وقایع خشکسالی طی دوره‏های آتی در هر سه سناریوی اقلیمی نسبت به دورۀ پایه افزایش یافته و دوره‏های مرطوب و نرمال نسبت به دورۀ پایه کاهش خواهد یافت. براساس یافته‏ها، طی دوره‏های آتی میانگین آورد سالانۀ رودخانۀ نکا تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 بین 15 تا 43 درصد کاهش می‏یابد. بنابراین، میانگین آورد سالانۀ رودخانۀ نکا در محل سد گلورد از 95 میلیون مترمکعب طی سال‏های 1992ـ 2014، به ۵4 تا 81 میلیون مترمکعب کاهش خواهد یافت. بر این اساس، باید با برنامه‏ریزی دقیق‏تر ضمن کاهش آثار منفی دوره‏های خشکسالی و کاهش جریان رودخانۀ نکا، از تنش‏های اجتماعی، زیست‌محیطی، اقتصادی و فرهنگی جلوگیری شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Drought and Forecasting Neka River Basin Runoff in Future Periods

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Babolhakami 1
  • Mohammad Ali Gholami Sefidkouhi 2
  • Alireza Emadi 2
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering , Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
چکیده [English]

Several studies have shown that climate change will have severe impacts on available water resources worldwide. Due to the effect of climate change on droughts and river flow, it is necessary to investigate the drought and water resources status under climate change conditions. In this study, the effects of climate change on run-off and SPI drought index in the Neka River basin in Mazandaran province were investigated. For this purpose, the data of the weather stations of Barikola, Pajim, Sefidchah, Glevard and Tirtash were used. Historical data of the Neka river discharge was obtained from Glevard hydrometeor Station. For this purpose, during the upcoming period (2018-2081), temperature and precipitation were simulated under three RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios for the Neka river basin. To determine the mean value of climatic parameters of rainfall and temperature, the Isohyetal method was used between meteorological stations. Then drought and run-off values were calculated. The IHACRES model was used to simulate run-off. The results showed that in all three climate scenarios, drought events will increase during the upcoming periods and wet and normal periods will decrease compared to the base period. Based on the findings, during the upcoming periods, the average annual flow of the Neka River under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios decrease between 15 and 43 percent. Thus, the average annual run-off volume of the Naka River at the Glevard dam will be reduced from 95 MCM in 2014 to 54 to 81 MCM. Therefore, in order to reduce the negative effects of the drought period and also reduce the flow of the Neka River, it is necessary to planning more accurate to avoid social, environmental, economic and cultural tensions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought Index
  • SPI
  • IPCC5
  • IHACRES
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