پیش‌بینی مقایسه‌ای بارش و دمای شهرستان کرمان با استفاده از مدل‌هایLARS-WG6

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی


1 دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد علوم و مهندسی آبخیز، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

2 استاد دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

3 دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد علوم و مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران


ارزیابی تغییرات اقلیمی برای مناطق خشک و نیمه‏خشک که بحران کم‌آبی آن را فرا گرفته است، اهمیت زیادی دارد. بنابراین، هدف از تحقیق حاضر پیش‏بینی تغییرات اقلیمی شهرستان کرمان با استفاده از مدل‏های گردش عمومی جو قابل دسترس در نرم‏افزار LARS-WG6 (EC-EARTH، GFDL-CM، HadGEM2-ES،MIROC5 و MPI-ESM-MR) تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 برای دورۀ 2020ـ 2050 و برآورد حداکثر بارش آن در دورۀ بازگشت‏های مختلف طی دورۀ پایه (1961ـ 2010) و آینده (2020-2050) با استفاده از توزیع گامبل است. نتایج نشان داد هر پنج مدل در زمینۀ پیش‏بینی دمای این شهرستان پاسخ یکسانی در زمینۀ افزایش حداکثری دمای مینیمم و ماکزیمم نشان داده‏اند، به گونه‏ای که حداکثر افزایش دمای مینیمم در مدل‏های ‏GFDL-CM، HadGEM2-ES، MIROC5 و MPI-ESM-MR به‌ترتیب به میزان 56/3، 73/2، 33/2 و 30/2 درجۀ سانتی‌گراد در ماه سپتامبر صورت گرفته است. همچنین، دمای ماکزیمم در سناریوی RCP4.5 در ماه‏های می، سپتامبر، می، سپتامبر و جولای به‌ترتیب در مدل‏های EC-EARTH، GFDL-CM، HadGEM2-ES،MIROC5 و MPI-ESM-MR حداکثر افزایش را به میزان 20/2، 82/2، 46/2، 98/1 و 38/2 درجۀ سانتی‏گراد نشان داده است. در فصل زمستان بارش به میزان 05/19 و 62/4 درصد به‌ترتیب در مدل‏های EC-EARTH و MIROC5 کاهش یافته است. نتایج بیانگر آن است که بارش‏های حداکثری در تمامی مدل‏ها به‌جز در مدل MPI-ESM-MR با میزان بارش بیشتری اتفاق خواهد افتاد. در نهایت، می‏توان نتیجه گرفت که با افزایش دورۀ بازگشت مقادیر حداکثر بارش محتمل طبق دو سناریوی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 افزایش داشته و تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 شدیدتر بوده است.


عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecast Comparative of Rainfall and Temperature in Kerman County Using LARS-WG6 Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Meysam Jafary Godeneh 1
  • Ali Salajeghe 2
  • Parsa Haghighi 3
1 MSc Watershed Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resource, University of Tehran
2 Professor, Faculty of Natural Resource, University of Tehran
3 Msc Student of Nature Engineering, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Assessment of climate change in arid and semiarid areas where water crisis is taken it is a matter of special importance. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate climate change forecasting in Kerman city using general atmospheric circulation models available in LARS-WG6 software (EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR) under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period (2020–2050) and estimate its maximum precipitation over the various return periods during the base period (1961–2010) and future (2020–2050) using the Gamble distribution. The results showed that all five models have the same response in increasing the minimum and maximum temperatures in the city so that the maximum increase in the minimum temperature in GFDL-CM, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR models is the results were 3.56, 2.73, 2.33 and 2.30 degrees Celsius, respectively. Also, the maximum temperature in the RCP4.5 scenario in May, September, May, September and July, respectively, in EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR models, respectively, increased by 2.20, 2.82, 2.46, 1.98 and 2.38 °C, respectively. Precipitation decreased by 19.05% and 4.62% in EC-EARTH and MIROC5 models, respectively. The results show that maximum precipitation will occur with higher rainfall in all models except MPI-ESM-MR. Finally, it can be concluded that with increasing return period, the maximum amount of probable precipitation increased under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and was more severe under RCP8.5 scenario.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Maximum Possible Precipitation
  • climate change
  • LARS-WG6
  • Kerman County
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