پیش ‏بینی و تحلیل پهنۀ سیل در شرایط تغییر اقلیم براساس سناریوهای مدل CanESM2

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری- آب، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استاد گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استاد مرکز مدل‏سازی پیشرفته و سیستم‏های اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکدۀ مهندسی و فناوری اطلاعات، دانشگاه فناوری سیدنی، استرالیا، استاد دانشکدۀ مهندسی انرژی و منابع معدنی، دانشگاه سئول، کره

4 استادیار گروه جنگل‏داری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

شمال ایران به دلیل اقلیم مرطوب و مقدار زیاد بارش حداکثر روزانه، یکی از مناطق مستعد وقوع سیل است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف پیش‏بینی پهنۀ سیل در شرایط تغییر اقلیم براساس سناریوهای پنجمین گزارش ارزیابی هیِئت بین‌الدول تغییر اقلیم در حوضۀ تالار (شهر زیراب) انجام شد. به منظور بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم از شش ایستگاه سینوپتیک استفاده شد. از میان مدل‏های گردش عمومی CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5، برای ریزمقیاس‏سازی آماری حداکثر بارش روزانه به ‏کار برده شد. برای شبیه‏سازی هیدرولوژیکی و هیدرولیکی سیلاب در دهه‏های اخیر و آینده از مدل‏های HEC-HMS و HEC-RAS استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد بارش حداکثر روزانه در حوضۀ تالار افزایش یافته، به‏طوری‏ که مقدار افزایش حداکثر بارش روزانه در اقلیم مرطوب (شمال) نسبت به اقلیم خشک (جنوب) بیشتر است. به‏طور کلی، حداکثر و حداقل بارش روزانه به‌ترتیب 8 و 33 میلی‏متر در حوضۀ تالار افزایش می‏یابد. نتایج شبیه‏سازی با توجه به هیدروگراف سیلاب بیانگر آن است که سیل در تمامی دوره‏ها افزایش می‏یابد. سناریوی RCP 4.5 حداقل و حداکثر سیل را به‌ترتیب در دوره‏های 2020-2040 (374 مترمکعب بر ثانیه) و 2020-2100 (1209 مترمکعب بر ثانیه) تولید خواهد کرد. نقشۀ پهنه‏بندی سیلاب نشان داد پهنۀ سیل‏گیر دورۀ پایه در محدودۀ رودخانه است، ولی تغییر اقلیم سبب افزایش پهنۀ سیلاب در این منطقه می‏شود. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد حداقل 18/0 درصد و حداکثر 7/8 درصد از کل شهر زیراب تحت تأثیر سیلاب در شرایط تغییر اقلیم قرار خواهد گرفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction and Analysis of Flood Zones under Climate Change Conditions based on CanESM2 Model’s Scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sajjad Mirzaei 1
  • Mehdi Vafakhah 2
  • Biswajeet Pradhan 3
  • Seyed Jalil Jalil Alavi 4
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Watershed Managment Sciences and Engineering , Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran
3 Professor, The Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information Systems (CAMGIS), Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, New South Wales 2007, Australia Professor, Department
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran
چکیده [English]

North of Iran is one of the flood-prone areas as a result of the humid climate and the large amount of maximum daily rainfall. This study aims to predict flood zone in climate change conditions based on the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) scenarios in the Talar watershed (Zirab city). To investigate the effect of climate change, six synoptic stations were used.  Among the general circulation models (GCM), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios were applied for statistical downscaling of the maximum daily rainfall. To hydrologic and hydraulic simulation of flood were used from Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC- HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic River System (HEC- RAS) models in the recent decades and the future. The results indicated that maximum daily rainfall will increase in the watershed. The results also showed that the increase in maximum daily rainfall in humid climate (the North) is more than dry climate (the South). In general, maximum daily rainfall will increase the minimum and maximum 8 and 33 mm, respectively in the watershed. The simulation results in terms of flood hydrograph indicate that flood increase in the all periods. The RCP 4.5 scenario will produce at minimum and maximum flood discharge in 2020-2040 (374 m3/s) and 2020-2100 (1209 m3/s), respectively. Flood zoning map showed that floodplain area is the base period in the river basin, but climate change will increase the flood zone in this region.  Besides, the results showed that at least 0.18 percent and at most 8.7 percent of the total Zirab city will effect on flood under climate change conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hydrological Variability
  • Maximum Daily Rainfall
  • The Fifth Report’s Scenarios
  • Statistical Downscaling
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