ارزیابی عدم قطعیت شاخص‌های عملکرد سامانۀ مخزن تحت تأثیر تغییراقلیم (مطالعۀ موردی: سد نمرود)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتر‌ی گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 استاد گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

3 استاد پژوهشکدۀ حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

4 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم یکی از چالش‏های اصلی در مدیریت و برنامه‏ریزی منابع آب است. در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت‏ها می‏تواند تصویر دقیق‏تری از وضعیت سیستم ارائه دهد. در پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی عدم قطعیت شاخص‏های عملکرد مخزن سد نمرود واقع در حوضۀ حبله‌رود تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم در دورۀ آتی (2021ـ 2040) انجام شده است. به این منظور، با استفاده از خروجی مدل گردش عمومی EC-EARTH تحت دو سناریوی انتشار RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 و به‏کارگیری مدل LARS-WG6 ریزمقیاس‌نمایی آماری برای دورۀ آتی انجام شد. رواناب حوضه در دورۀ آتی با مدل هیدرولوژیکی IHACRES برآورد شد. در ادامه، با در نظر گرفتن ورودی‏های آیندۀ متغیرهای اقلیمی، تغییرات نیازها محاسبه شد. مدل‏سازی سامانۀ منابع آب با استفاده از مدل WEAP انجام شد. درنهایت و بر اساس تغییرات جریان رودخانه و با به‏کارگیری روش مونت‏کارلو، عدم قطعیت عملکرد مخزن سد نمرود تحت شرایط حاضر و تغییر اقلیم ارزیابی شده و راهکارهای انطباقی کاهش تقاضا (تأمین 85 و 70 درصدی تقاضای کشاورزی) بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد بیشترین مقادیر شاخص پایداری مربوط به سناریوی کاهش 30 درصدی تقاضای کشاورزی تحت سناریوی انتشار RCP4.5 است. دامنۀ تغییرات نیز تحت سناریوی یادشده برای کشاورزی فیروزکوه و گرمسار 64/20 و 2/34 درصد کاهش می‏یابد، هرچند کاهش تقاضا به‏تنهایی برای بهبود عملکرد سیستم کافی نیست. دامنۀ تغییرات شاخص پایداری نسبت به سایر شاخص‏ها کمتر بود و بر همین اساس، قابلیت اطمینان بیشتری برای ارزیابی وضعیت سیستم را دارد. در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت‏ها اگرچه ارزیابی تأثیرگذاری سناریوهای سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم را پیچیده‏تر می‏سازد، اما به افزایش اطمینان‏پذیری راهکارها کمک می‏کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Uncertainty Evaluation of Reservoir System Performance Indicators Under Climate Change (Case Study: Namroud Dam)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Avin Hakami Kermani 1
  • Hossein Babazadeh 2
  • Jahangir Porhemmat 3
  • Mahdi Sarai Tabrizi 4
1 Department of Water Science and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Water Science and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 -
4 Department of Water Engineering and Sciences, SRBIAU, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change is one of the major challenges for the management and planning of water resources. Considering the uncertainties can present a more accurate picture of the system state. The present paper evaluated the uncertainty of performance indicators in the reservoir of Namroud Dam, located in the Hablehroud Basin, under climate change in the upcoming period (2021-2040). For this purpose, statistical downscaling for the upcoming period was performed using the output of the EC-EARTH general circulation model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios and the LARS-WG6 model. The basin runoff in the upcoming period was estimated using the IHACRES hydrological model. In addition, the demand changes were calculated taking the future inputs of the climate variables into account. The water resources system was modeled using the WEAP model. Finally, based on the changes in river flow and using the Monte Carlo simulation, this study evaluated the performance uncertainty of the Namroud Dam reservoir under current conditions and climate change. Moreover, it investigated the adaptation strategies to reduce the demand (meeting 85% and 70% of the agricultural demand). The results showed the highest values of the stability index for the 30% reduction in agricultural demand under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The changes in agriculture in Firoozkooh and Garmsar under this scenario decreased by 20.64% and 34.2%, respectively, although the reduction in demand alone is not sufficient to improve system performance. Compared to other indicators, the stability index changes were more limited and thus more reliable for assessing the system state.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Namroud Dam
  • climate change
  • Uncertainty
  • WEAP
  • System Performance Indices
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