بهینه‏سازی الگو و تراکم کشت تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم (مطالعۀ موردی: دشت دامنه ـ داران)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند

2 استاد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند

3 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، مجتمع آموزش عالی میناب، دانشگاه هرمزگان

چکیده

کشاورزی به علت ماهیت بیولوژیکی آن و وابستگی شدید به طبیعت بزرگ‏ترین مصرف‏کنندۀ منابع آبی در بیشتر کشورها است. بنابراین، امروزه مدیریت آب در این بخش نقش مهمی را در مصرف منابع آب کشورها بازی می‏کند. مطالعۀ حاضر با هدف بهینه‏سازی سطح زیر کشت، تخصیص آب آبیاری و حداکثرسازی سود حاصل از کشت محصولات زراعی دشت دامنه‌‌ـ داران استان اصفهان در دورۀ ۲۰17- ۲۰30 تحت سناریوی RPC8.5 گزارش پنجم تغییر اقلیم با کمک الگوریتم ژنتیک انجام شد. نتایج حاصل از اجرای مدل در بخش تغییر اقلیم پس از تخمین رواناب ماهانۀ حوضه به ‏وسیلۀ مدل AWBM با ضریب همسبتگی 75 درصدی نشان داد مقادیر RMSE، MBE و R پارامترهای ریزمقیاس‏سازی‌شده توسط مدل ریزمقیاس‌ساز آماری (SDSM) به‌ترتیب برابر 34/۸، ۵۱/۷ و 98/0در پارامتر دما و ۲۸/۱-، ۲۸/۶ و 78/0در پارامتر بارش است. بهینه‏سازی الگوی کشت در منطقۀ مطالعه‌شده باعث کاهش سطح زیر کشت محصولات گندم، جو، چغندرقند و ذرت علوفه‏ای به‏ترتیب به‏ مقدار ۶/۲۱۳۰، ۱/۱۱۷۶، ۸/۱۱۲ و ۵۱۶ هکتار، افزایش سطح زیر کشت سیب‏زمینی به مقدار ۵/۳۹۳۵ هکتار، صرفه‏جویی مصرف آب بخش کشاورزی طی سال‏های ۲۰17- ۲۰30 به مقدار ۲۱/۱۸ میلیون مترمکعب و افزایش سود کلی کشاورزان منطقه به میزان 163 میلیون تومان شد.

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دوره 9، شماره 1
فروردین 1401
صفحه 227-242
  • تاریخ دریافت: 23 شهریور 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 07 اسفند 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 07 اسفند 1400
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 01 فروردین 1401
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 فروردین 1401